Wasabi Fenway Bowl Pick: SMU vs. Boston College

SMU Mustangs (11-2 SU, ATS 8-5) vs Boston College Eagles (6-6 SU, ATS 4-6)

Date: 11:00 EST Thursday, December 28th

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: SMU -10/BC +10

Money Line: S. Methodist -439/Boston Collge +319

Over/Under: 51.5

The SMU Mustangs and Boston College Eagles meet up in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl on 12/28/23 at Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The over/under for this matchup is currently 51.5, while SMU is favored by -10.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, SMU and Boston College did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, Boston College has the leg up at 3-0. Boston College also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 60 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

SMU Mustangs Recent Form:

With a 26-14 win over Tulane, SMU’s record now stands at 11-2 as they head into this week’s matchup with Boston College.

SMU was the underdog at +3, giving them an ATS and straight-up win. The under hit in the game with the over/under line set at 47.5 points.

In their last game, quarterback Kevin Jennings accumulated 33 passing attempts against Tulane. He concluded the game with 203 passing yards while achieving a completion rate of 57.6%. Furthermore, he recorded two interceptions in the win.

The top rusher for SMU against Tulane was Jaylan Knighton. He gained 75 rushing yards and scored one time in 15 attempts. For the game, RJ Maryland hauled in five receptions for a total of 56 yards, which led the team.

SMU’s defense gave up 269 yards of offense vs. Tulane. In the passing game, they allowed 238 yards, while on the ground, they gave up 31 yards. Defensively, the Mustangs defense has come up with 47 sacks this season and are 1st in quarterback hurries. Overall, they are allowing 17.4 points per contest (63rd). Against the pass, they are 38th in the NCAA, having allowed 188.4 passing yards allowed per game. SMU is giving up 111.6 rushing yards per contest.

Away Injury Report

Boston College Eagles Recent Form:

After their most recent loss to Miami, the Eagles dropped back to .500 and come into this week’s game at 6-6.

Not only did Boston College lose straight-up in this matchup, but they also lost vs. the spread as 10-point underdogs. Combining for 65 points, the teams exceeded the line of 49.5 points.

During their most recent loss, quarterback Thomas Castellanos threw 25 passing attempts against Miami. He concluded the game with 151 passing yards, completing 60.0% of his passes. Furthermore, he had two interceptions in the game.

Quarterback Thomas Castellanos didn’t just excel in passing against Miami; he also made an impact on the ground, carrying the ball 19 times for 130 yards. Leading Boston College in receiving against Miami was Dino Tomlin. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 48 yards on three receptions.

Boston College’s defense gave up 533 yards of offense vs. Miami. In the passing game, they allowed 290 yards, while on the ground they gave up 243 yards. Defensively, the Eagles defense has come up with 12 sacks this season and are 1st in quarterback hurries. Overall, they are allowing 29.5 points per contest (124th). Against the pass, they are 47th in the NCAA, having allowed 197.4 passing yards allowed per game. Boston College is giving up 194 rushing yards per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• SMU are 3-2 Against the spread in their last five games on the road.
• At home, Boston College has gone 2-1 against the spread (last three).
• Looking back at the last five times Boston College went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 2-3.
• SMU’s record vs. the spread in their five most recent games as the favorite is 3-2.

Free Pick

Despite playing close to home at Fenway Park, Boston College is 10-point underdogs vs. SMU. Despite playing in what will essentially be a home game, that won’t be enough to slow down one of the top offenses in college football. I like SMU at -10.