Wasabi Fenway Bowl ATS Prediction: UConn vs. North Carolina

North Carolina is coming off a disappointing regular season, Connecticut a winning one heading into something called the Wasabi Fenway Bowl, slated for Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park in Boston.

The Tar Heels were at least expected to win eight or nine games this season and perhaps contend in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Instead, they finished 6-6 and will play this bowl under an interim head coach without their top offensive threat.

Meanwhile, the Huskies played themselves into one of the bigger turnarounds of this college football season, advancing from three victories to eight, posting their first winning record since 2010.

Motivation is often a factor in bowl match-ups like this. How are we playing this Fenway Bowl with our free college football betting pick?

College Football Betting Odds

The CFB bowl season betting market opened North Carolina at -5 over UConn, with an over/under of right around 56. Early betting action, probably spurred by a key Tar Heels opt-out, dipped that line to -3.

According to Sagarin’s ratings (Sagarin.com) the line on this game should be UNC -7.

Fenway Bowl Betting Preview

Connecticut reached bowl-eligibility this season by playing 8-4 through a very weak independent schedule. The Huskies started 1-2, although one of those losses came in a close game against what turned out to be a pretty good Duke team. UConn then won seven of its last nine games, beating nobody of note, the losses coming against Wake Forest and Syracuse.

The Huskies completed their regular season with a 47-42 victory over Massachusetts back on Nov. 30. But they came up short ATS at -7.5, allowing 390 yards of offense to a 2-win Minutemen team.

Connecticut played 9-16 through its first two seasons under HC Jim Mora but began this season with justified hopes of making a bowl. The Huskies returned 14 starters from a team that won its last two games last season, and the weak schedule helped. So here they are.

Meanwhile, North Carolina reached bowl-eligibility by doing the bare minimum, going 6-6. They even cost their head coach his job. The Heels started 3-0, although they got lucky to win at Minnesota, considering the Gophers kicker missed two make-able field goals. Carolina then put on one of the worst performances we saw this season, that 70-50 embarrassment against James Madison, which sparked a four-game losing skid. The Heels played in a little bad luck over that stretch, losing close decisions to Duke, Pitt, and Georgia Tech, but then again, you can create your own bad luck. North Carolina then won three straight to get to 6-4 but finished with back-to-back losses to Boston College and North Carolina State.

Following the loss to BC, the Heels fired Coach Brown, ultimately replacing him with Coach Belichick. However, tight ends coach Freddie Kitchens, who coached Cleveland of the NFL to 6-10 back in 2019, will head the sidelines for Carolina for this bowl.

The Tar Heels were favored by a field goal for their season finale against the Wolfpack back on Nov. 30 but gave up 462 yards of NC State offense and lost 35-30. Just before that, the Heels allowed 420 yards to Boston College and lost 41-21.

North Carolina returned 13 starters this season from a team that played 8-5 last season. So, the Heels were expected to play a little better than .500, but it just didn’t happen.

These programs last met when they played a home-and-home back in 2008-09; the Tar Heels won both games by scores of 38-12 and 12-10.

On the personnel front, North Carolina will play without RB Omarion Hampton, who accounted for 2,000 yards from scrimmage this season and 21 touchdowns, after he declared he’s headed to the NFL draft.

By the Numbers

UConn averaged 401 YPG on offense this season, including 198 PG on the ground. Defensively, the Huskies allowed 359 YPG and 136 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranked as the 130th-toughest schedule in the country.

North Carolina averaged 423 YPG on offense, 190 rushing, while allowing 377 YPG on defense, 144 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 67 schedule.

College Football Betting Trends

UConn played 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS this season vs. teams that made bowls.

North Carolina played 1-6 SU, 0-6-1 ATS vs. bowl teams.

Common Opponents

These teams played two common opponents this season, Duke and Wake Forest. North Carolina played those foes to 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS and +10 YPG, UConn to 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS and -91 YPG.

Totals Report

The Over is 7-3-2 in Huskies games this season, which are averaging 56 total points.

The Under is 7-5 in Tar Heels games, averaging 61 points.

Free Fenway Bowl Betting Pick

Even without Hampton, and he leaves big shoes to fill, North Carolina is the better team here and should win this game outright. The Tar Heels played seven teams that made bowls this season and realistically came close to going 9-3. UConn, on the other hand, played almost nobody. Also, Carolina put up the better performance against common opponents. Sometimes, trying to ascertain motivation for bowls like this can be difficult, but while the Tar Heels don’t have much to play for big-picture, those players who are coming back next year know that Coach Belichick is watching. We expect North Carolina to win this game by double digits.

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