Virginia vs. Notre Dame Pick: Can the Cavaliers Cover the 22-Point Spread?

Virginia Cavaliers (5-4 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 16th, 3:30 PM
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

TV: NBC
Point Spread: UVA +22 / ND -22
Over/Under Total: 50.5

College football games in November bring even more meaning and excitement with teamsters battling for postseason position, and that is undoubtedly true for Saturday’s matchup in South Bend between Notre Dame and Virginia, with one attempting to clear its path into the BCS playoffs and the other looking to clinch bowl eligibility.

DROUGHT

The Cavaliers find themselves needing just one win in their final three games to get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2019.  With SMU and a road trip to Blacksburg to take on interstate rival Virginia Tech awaiting them, though, after this weekend, there are definitely no assurances that they will be playing after November.  UVA was able to stop a three-game slide last weekend against Pittsburgh thanks to an injury to the Panthers’ starting quarterback, but they can’t count on such advantageous variables continuing to happen and will need to step up their gameplay if they want a chance of getting what would be just their second bowl win since 2005.

MEET VIRGINIA

 
Leading the way for the Virginia offense is quarterback Anthony Colandrea.  The sophomore signal-caller has thrown for a mediocre twelve touchdowns on the season compared to eight interceptions, but unfortunately for Cavalier fans, he has hit a bit of a wall of late, completing less than 58% of his passes in four of the last five games while also throwing for just one touchdown compared to four interceptions over their last two matchups.  Not all of the blame can be placed on the quarterback, though, as Colandrea has been sacked 15 times in their last two games, as the offensive line has continued to struggle with consistency as the season wears on.  Their battle up front against a Notre Dame defense that ranks nationally 18th in sacks and 2nd against the pass will undoubtedly be one of the most defining in which team ends up covering on Saturday, though injuries up front on both sides promise to shake things up with Virginia center Brian Stevens listed as questionable to play and Notre Dame standout defensive lineman Howard Cross already ruled out.
 

COLANDREA’S CREW

 
One issue for Colandrea and the Virginia passing game has been a lack of effective options, with only two healthy receivers on the roster having posted double-digit receptions on the season, Malik Fields and formerly of Notre Dame Chris Tyree.  Fields is the team leader in all receiving categories and is the feature option for Colandrea with Tyree and Andre Green filling out the remaining starting spots at the position.  Tight end Tyler Neville is second on the team in receptions but hasn’t found the endzone since week two and will need to become more of red zone prescience for Virginia as they can ill afford to squander any scoring chances in their final three games, considering they will be underdogs in all three matchups, considerably so against SMU and Notre Dame.
 

SETTING THE PACE

 
Leading the way for the Virginia backfield is senior Kobe Pace, though his backup Xavier Brown continues to make his case for more playing time and the stats may be more supportive to the former than the latter.  Brown has averaged a full 2 yards more per carry (6.4 to 4.4) and is riding some momentum after leading the team in carries in their upset win against Pittsburgh while scoring touchdowns both on the ground and through the air.  The Cavaliers would have a difficult time trading touchdowns in a high-scoring game against the Irish, and if they have any chance of pulling off an upset, they will need to control the flow of the game with a solid rushing attack, similar to what Northern Illinois was able to pull off in week two.  
 

TRIPPING BALLS

 
For Notre Dame to find their way to the BCS Playoffs, they will have to get past Virginia at home this weekend before leaving South Bend to end their season with games against undefeated Army at Yankee Stadium, followed by a trip to the Coliseum to take on USC.  Marcus Freeman spoke after they upset previously and mentioned some of the players believing too much of the hype in the media around the team, and with those same press folk now saying the Irish are set up well to be playing for a postseason home game in round one, fans of the team are hoping that players will be a lot more focused on the field than buying into their own hype.
 

SCORING STREAK

Irish quarterback Riley Leonard continues to find success getting into the endzone, now having run for a touchdown in eight straight games with thirteen total scores on the ground during that span.  Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has used that ability when game planning to their advantage, with Leonard’s dual-threat ability opening up space through the air and allowing the team to spread the ball around.  At least nine different players have caught passes in each of the past four games, during which the team has averaged over 36 per and covered the point spread in the quartet of matchups by a combined 70 total points.

LEONARD’S LEGIONS

Leonard’s main targets in the Irish passing game remain the same, with wide receiver Beaux Collins leading the team in receptions and yards, and Jaden Greathouse is right behind in both categories. He was also hoping to build off the Seminoles game, where he had five receptions, the same amount he had put in the previous three matchups combined.  Another player also starting to gain steam is tight end Mitchell Evans, who celebrated the news of his semi-finalist nomination for the best tight end of the year (Mackey Award) with his first touchdown of the year against FSU.  His nomination is all the more impressive considering he has just 18 receptions on the year, though now that he seems fully recovered from a 2023 injury, it appears that Evans has an outside chance to join Tyler Eifert as the only Notre Dame tight end to ever win the award.

DOUBLE J

Notre Dame’s rushing offense isn’t ranked 12th nationally in yards per game just because of Riley Leonard, as the backfield tandem of Jermiyah Love and Jadarian Price continue to build upon a successful 2024 campaign.  Love leads the twosome in yards and scores along with Price, averaging an impressive over 7 yards per carry, and as the season gets into the grinding end run, both will continue to be heavily relied upon as the defenses they face get stronger, starting this week with Virginia’s duo of safety Jonas Sanker and linebacker Cam Robinson.  

TRENDS AND PICK

The Cavaliers have been a lively underdog of late, going 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 road games, getting points, and 22-8 in their last 30 as a ‘dog overall.  They have also done well with bettors after finding success, going 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 games after a win.

I don’t think any of that is going to matter this weekend, though, as Notre Dame will be just too strong for the Cavaliers to handle for a full 60 minutes.  Virginia may have been good against the spread on the road as an underdog, but considering they are still 14-49 straight up in their last 63 away games, it doesn’t lend a lot to their credibility of being an actual threat. 

Notre Dame is on a 9-3 run against the spread in their last 12 games as a double-digit favorite and are 10-2 in their last twelve versus the number overall. They currently sit as a 22-point favorite against Virginia and despite this setting up as a classic look ahead game with the matchup against Army coming up next, I still believe head coach Marcus Freeman will have the Irish focused enough to keep their resurgent streak going with a win and cover on Saturday afternoon in South Bend.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -22

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