Vanderbilt vs. Auburn Prediction: Is the Under the Best Bet?

Vanderbilt Commodores (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 10

Date/Time: Saturday, November 2nd, 2024, 12:45PM (EST)

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium Auburn, AL.

TV: SEC Network

Betting Odds

Point Spread: VAN +6.5/AUB -6.5

Moneyline: Vandy +200/Tigers -240

Total: 48.5

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The Auburn Tigers snapped a 4-game losing streak last Saturday with a 24-10 victory over the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington. In that game, I expected that both Kentucky and Auburn would struggle to move the football and urged bettors to back the Under 41-point total. While our under bet hit, Auburn’s offense proved me wrong by getting a huge performance from RB Jarquez Hunter who rumbled for 278 yards on 28 carries with two touchdowns. The explosion from the ground attack was able to help Auburn’s defense stay off the field and also win their possessions against the Kentucky offense. As a result, the Tigers will look to replicate last week’s success when they return home to host the Vanderbilt Commodores at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have consistently been a doormat through most of their history in the SEC but have made some noise this season, most notably with their well-documented upset win over No. 1 Alabama. Last week, the Commodores went toe to toe with no. 5 Texas but fell short in a 27-24 loss. Needless to say, this 2024 version of Vanderbilt is far from a doormat in the conference and has an excellent shot at becoming bowl-eligible despite a tough remaining schedule. The Commodores will have the opportunity to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2018 this Saturday when they take a trip to the plains as 6.5-point underdogs against the Auburn Tigers!

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Analysis

I will be honest in stating I was fairly surprised to see Auburn as a nearly full touchdown betting favorite in this match-up against the Commodores. I was surprised mostly because, barring the breakout performance from RB Jarquez Hunter last week, this Auburn offense has still played poorly throughout the majority of the season. Even with the victory last week, Auburn has failed to score more than 24 points in a single conference game this season. QB Payton Thorne has been a turnover liability, and the Tigers’ offense has been mostly effective as a one-dimensional running threat.

The good news for Auburn is that the Tigers have an excellent defense that does not get the credit they deserve due to the fact the offense has been atrocious. I believe the Auburn defense will have a strong match-up this week against a Vanderbilt offense led by QB Diego Pavia. Pavia has led the offense with 13 touchdowns and three picks on the season while also leading the team in rushing with 537 yards on the ground. While those numbers are impressive, this Vanderbilt offense is very methodical with running plays and short-intermediate passing routes. The Vanderbilt offense simply does not have the deep passing threat in their arsenal, and I believe that plays into the strength of the Auburn defense, who should have opportunities to make stops and get off the field.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Trends

• Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• Vanderbilt is 5-13 SU in the last 18 games.
• Vanderbilt has hit the “over” in six of the last nine games.
• Vanderbilt is 1-8 SU in their last nine games on the road.
• Auburn is 2-5 SU in the last seven games at home.
• Auburn has hit the “under” in four of the last five games.
• Auburn has hit the “under” in each of the last five games against Vanderbilt.
• Auburn is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Prediction

We hit on the Auburn “under” in last week’s battle against Kentucky, and I think that is the play again this week against the Commodores. Both defenses hold the upper hand in their match-ups. In fact, both run defenses rank in the top 25 in college football and will be facing heavily run-oriented offenses this Saturday. I think this could be another low-scoring, ugly type of game that both teams have produced regularly this season. As a result, I want the under again!

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 48.5!

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