UTSA vs. Texas State Predictions & Picks: Week 2 Showdown

Week two gives us an AAC vs. Sun Belt Conference showdown as the UTSA Roadrunners come in to battle the Texas State Bobcats on Saturday. Both teams opened with wins and with the rust that comes with a new season, maybe an abundance of scrutiny is not what’s needed. You could still say each team under-performed, with Texas-San Antonio beating Kennsaw State 28-16 as 23.5-point favorites and the Bobcats faring worse, hanging on to beat Lamar, 34-27, as 33.5-point favorites. They each look for better this week in a more demanding spot.

Setting the Table

Last season saw these teams play in early-September, a defensive battle that was pretty even throughout, with UTSA leaning on a strong run-game to get a 20-13 win at home. The Roadrunners were able to put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, but the Bobcats still hung in there pretty well and got the cover. UTSA now takes to the road under head coach Jeff Traylor, a man who has guided this team to 32 wins in the last three seasons, now in their second season in the American Athletic Conference after coming over from Conference-USA.

Just as San Antonio is experiencing an upsurge, the same can be said for Texas State under the second-year stewardship of head coach GJ Kinne. Last season saw them playing consistently on their way to eight wins and a victory in the First Responder Bowl. It was the most wins and their first bowl triumph since joining the FBS, so Kinne and his squad certainly look to take the next step this season. You have two rising programs who had week one layups where some rust was present. Who can come out in week two and deliver?

Good Early Signs for the UTSA Offense

The name of the Roadrunners’ quarterback will ring bells for football fans, as Josh’s son Owen McCown is off to a fast start, taking it to the Kennesaw defense with 340 yards passing, 3 TDs, and no picks. He also ran in a touchdown, and sure, Kennesaw provides no measure of what McCown will end up doing this season, but he sure looked good. After getting some work in the Colorado program in 2022, he backed up Frank Harris last season for the Roadrunners and is now the starter. He connected beautifully with WR Devin McCuin, who had 11 catches and two TDs, and we’ll see if they can build on that in this heightened context. But since coming to town, we’ve seen coach Traylor put forth consistent and smooth-running offenses that generally put up a lot of points and deliver in these kinds of matchups—last season’s pedestrian 20-point showing in this matchup notwithstanding.

Bobcats’ Offensive Firepower

After taking a long time to find a groove at this elevated level of college football, we finally saw the Bobcats looking the part in 2023, something they hope to build on this season behind QB Jordan McCloud, who threw for three touchdowns in his first game. He had 35 TDs for James Madison last season and can really provide a spark. Helping his transition will be RB Ismail Mahdi, who ran for 1331 yards last season, beginning this season with 156 yards in game one. Meanwhile, wide receiver Joey Hobert showed he’s ready to ascend with a pair of touchdown receptions. Despite 13 points scored in last season’s matchup and a history of so-so offensive production, it might be time to look at the Bobcats in a different way.

What to Expect on Saturday

I think we saw a lot of things from both sides of this game in week one that you’d expect to get cleaned up. These coaches took great strides in uplifting these programs, and now that week one is out of the way, I’d expect things to get more serious. UTSA has a new QB, there are issues with kicker, and there can sometimes be some pretty big momentum swings within their games that can be frustrating to watch when you have money on them. It’s still going to be a fun team to watch, with an energetic offense that should be able to produce. Once they clean up the mistakes, I’d expect coach Traylor to have this unit clicking.

Texas St. has done well to bring themselves up to a certain level of respectability. And by hanging in there with UTSA last season, they showed they can now compete with teams like this. I expect some new leadership on the defensive side of the ball to resonate this season, and while we’ll still need to wait and see if McCloud can replace the production of his predecessor, Finley, the first signs were positive.

Take the Points

There has been enough shuffling of players on both teams to make any number of outcomes here seem valid heading into Saturday. And for UTSA, this is about as cushy as an out-of-conference road game could be, with San Marcos about a 45-minute drive from San Antonio. I think Texas State might be OK when it’s all said and done, while having this feeling that UTSA is a little bit more-solid heading into this week. In a game where picking a winner isn’t easy, I’ll take the points.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the UTSA Roadrunners plus 2.5 points.