UTSA vs. East Carolina Predictions & Picks for Week 5

UTSA Roadrunners and East Carolina Pirates are both 2-2 as they head into this week five matchup at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville. Kick-off is set for 4:00 ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN+. The over/under line is currently at 53.5 points, with East Carolina being the -4.5 point favorite at home. The money line odds stand at +158 for the Roadrunners and -193 for the Pirates.

UTSA Roadrunners (2-2 SU, ATS 0-2)  vs East Carolina Pirates (2-2 SU, ATS 1-2)
Date: 4:00 EST Saturday, September 28th
Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
TV: ESPN+
Point Spread: UTSA +4.5/ECU -4.5
Money Line: UTSA +158/ECU  -193
Over/Under: 53.5

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The UTSA Roadrunners and East Carolina Pirates did not meet up last season, but over their last three head-to-head matchups, each team is 1-2. Against the spread, each team also went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 1-2. These games averaged a combined 41 points per contest.

UTSA Roadrunners Recent Form:

UTSA evened their season record to 2-2 with a commanding 45-7 victory over Houston Christian. The Roadrunners took control early, leading 10-0 after the first quarter and extending their lead to 31-7 by halftime. They added another 7 points in the third quarter and held Houston Christian scoreless in the second half.

UTSA’s offense was unstoppable in their 45-7 win, racking up 540 total yards and 35 first downs. The Roadrunners’ ground game was effective, gaining 273 yards and scoring twice, while their passing attack added 267 yards and four touchdowns.

Owen McCown completed 72% of his passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns, earning a passer rating of 139.33. Brandon High Jr. led the rushing effort with 74 yards on nine carries, and Willie McCoy was the top receiver, with two catches for 85 yards and a touchdown.

UTSA’s defense was dominant in their most recent game, holding Houston Christian to just 7 points and 180 total yards. The Roadrunners allowed only 53 rushing yards on 31 attempts and limited Houston Christian to 127 passing yards on 13 completions. Overall, UTSA’s defense allowed just 12 first downs in the game.

Away Injury Report

East Carolina Pirates Recent Form:

East Carolina is now 2-2 after a 35-24 road loss to Liberty. The Pirates, who were +7.5 point underdogs, not only fell short of an upset but also failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 59 points surpassed the over/under line of 54.5 points.

East Carolina fell behind early, with Liberty taking a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. The Pirates managed to close the gap to 17-7 by halftime, but they were outscored 14-7 in the third quarter. Despite a strong fourth quarter, East Carolina was unable to complete the comeback, and Liberty outscored them 14-0 in the final period.

East Carolina’s offense, led by quarterback Jake Garcia, totaled 331 yards in their 35-24 loss to Liberty. Garcia completed 20 of 36 passes for 204 yards, with one interception. His top target, Chase Sowell, caught five passes for 72 yards.

The Pirates’ offense moved the chains 21 times but struggled to find the end zone, with all three of their touchdowns coming on the ground. Rahjai Harris led the rushing attack with 47 yards on 13 carries and one of the team’s three rushing touchdowns.

East Carolina’s defense will be looking to tighten up after allowing 415 total yards in their last game. They had particular trouble stopping the run, giving up 192 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Pirates’ secondary also struggled, allowing 223 yards through the air and four passing touchdowns. Despite forcing one interception, East Carolina’s defense will need to be more effective in their next outing.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the UTSA Roadrunners have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 17 points per game in these contests.
• Through their last ten home games, East Carolina has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 3-7 while averaging 21 points per game.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the UTSA Roadrunners have a straight-up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 0-3.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the East Carolina Pirates have a straight up record of 6-4. But their mark vs the spread was just 4-6.

Free Pick

The advantage that East Carolina has heading into Saturday’s matchup vs UTSA is on the defensive end. UTSA isn’t anything special on offense, and I can see them going into Greenville and struggling to move the ball. At -4.5, I like East Carolina to take care of business at home. I’m taking the Pirates to not only pick up the win but cover the spread.