UTEP Miners at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Betting Analysis & Point Spread Prediction

UTEP Miners (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 9

Date/Time: Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 8PM EDT

Where: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, Louisiana

TV: CBS Sports Network

The UTEP Miners come to Ruston on Tuesday for a Conference USA matchup with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. For the first time this season, the Miners enter a game with a little head of steam, coming off a win on Wednesday over FIU, 30-21, winning as touchdown underdogs. They now take to the road to battle their conference foe Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, who last played on Tuesday, falling to New Mexico State in double-overtime, 33-30. Who should we get behind in this midweek Conference USA special from Joe Aillet Stadium?

What to Make of UTEP’s Win

The road to last week’s win was a rough one for the Miners. The bad results were beginning to pile up—a 33-point loss to Nebraska, a loss to Southern Utah from the FCS, double-digit losses to Liberty and Colorado State, a 20-point loss to Sam Houston, and a 27-point loss to WKU. And sure, Florida International is nothing special, but they were still good enough to beat UTEP’s opponent this week, beating Louisiana Tech, 17-10, a few weeks back.

At just 2-4, the Bulldogs are in no position to point fingers at UTEP. They have enough on their own plates. But despite last week’s results, where UTEP won and the Bulldogs lost, Louisiana Tech has forged the image this season as being at least a slightly more cohesive team. The Florida International loss was a definite low point. But they hung in there well in a loss to NC State, and while they’ve lost to a few shaky teams this season by losing to the likes of Tulsa and last week to New Mexico State. We’ve yet to see them get embarrassed this season, something you can’t really say of UTEP.

What to Make of This Spread

As of press time, we see Louisiana Tech as a TD favorite at home. On the surface, that might seem like a large number for a team to cover that is basically at a similar station in life as their opponents—bottom-half teams in Conference USA. When you get down to this level, there might not be a ton separating the teams. Still, it’s understandable based on the range you get with the Bulldogs as opposed to the one you get with the Miners. Last week would represent a higher end of what you can expect to get with UTEP. But the flip side of that equation is what stands out here—UTEP’s tendency for things to get really ugly in games. And that’s something Louisiana Tech has largely been able to avoid. And when you’re splitting hairs at this level, things like overall competency go a long way. In that sense, you tend to favor the Bulldogs.

What to Expect from the Bulldogs

With 7 TD throws and no picks in his last two games, the Bulldogs look to ride the hot hand of QB Evan Bullock. Their strength in their running game comes from their plethora of different options, though it’s not always a part of their game that thrives. With Tru Edwards as the lead receiver with other nice options like TE Eli Finley, Bullock is better dialing in the aerial game. Again, we’re talking about a two-win Conference USA team taking on a one-win team from the same conference. Things aren’t going to jump off the page with these two squads. But with greater effervescence aerially and having shown an offensive explosion is at least something that is on the table, it’s hard to not opt for this Bulldogs’ offense in this spot.

What Can UTEP Do About It?

In the sense of looking at things as a whole, the Miners actually don’t have the worst pieces on offense—a decently-talented QB in Skyler Locklear, a few useful backs in Jevon Jackson and Ezell Holly, and good receivers in Kenny Odom and Kam Thomas. It’s just that UTEP supporters had to wait until last week to see any of it truly resonate in a meaningful way. Prior to that, all this good stuff amounted to just 16 points per game.

There is still this sneaking suspicion that these teams are closer than the spread appears and that a more difficult schedule has perhaps painted a less flattering image for UTEP than it has for Louisiana Tech. And just maybe, Louisiana Tech would be the team you’re looking at badly if they played the same schedule that UTEP played. Whereas Louisiana Tech has played teams that now sit at a combined 15-28, UTEP’s list of opponents is 29-18.

Take the Points

I can understand a positive stance on Louisiana Tech, a team that has been more likely to show up in a respectful state, getting this one at home. It’s just that a breakdown seems to suggest an even-type of game where maybe the Bulldogs deserve a small edge, but that a spread of a TD maybe overstates the case at least slightly. I’m going with the Miners in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the UTEP Miners plus 7 points.

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