Utah vs. Utah State Pick ATS: Rising’s Injury Casts Shadow on Spread

The Utah Utes come to Logan for an in-state battle with the Utah State Aggies on Saturday. While conference realignment has thrown some former Pac-12 rivalry games into a quandary, this isn’t one of them. Once an annual game, this “Battle of the Brothers” rivalry ceased altogether nearly a decade ago, with this their first matchup in nine years. Utah, now a member of the Big 12, has started the season 2-0, including a 23-12 win over Baylor last Saturday. Utah State, meanwhile, is looking to atone for a disastrous week two game, where they got slaughtered on the road by USC, 48-0. Who should we get behind in this one on Saturday?

A Look at Utah State

They’ve followed a pattern the last handful of seasons where they have the occasional spike, sandwiched with a lot of so-so seasons. After a few more so-so years following an 11-win season in 2021 and an internal scandal involving Blake Anderson, the Aggies have Nate Dreiling in there, still with an interim tag. It’s difficult to get a read on this team based on what we’ve seen so far this season, with both their games against Robert Morris and USC being faulty barometers on where the Aggies stand. At the end of the year, those are not the metrics upon which they will be judged. After leading Utah to a win on that same field last season in a tremendous upset, the now-Utah State QB Bryson Barnes couldn’t get much going with this Aggies squad. But again, going against a USC team that is heavily stressing defense didn’t tell us much, and they look to get back closer to their first game, when things were operating smoothly through the air, albeit against Robert Morris.

What to Expect from Utah

They do have QB Cameron Rising back in the fold, but the hard-luck Utes quarterback injured his throwing hand last week. Coach Whittingham said it’s not terribly serious, but his status bears watching leading up to game-time. Isaac Wilson helped lead the Utah offense in Rising’s absence, and if they have one thing going for them, it’s that they’re accustomed to soldiering on through injuries to key players, including Rising. Running back Micah Bernard had 118 yards on the ground and that production would really pay off on a consistent basis. Money Parks made a big play, they got a TD off fumble after a sack, and they controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides against Baylor. While in a new conference and dealing with some turnover, they look a lot like the same Utah team. You just wonder if they’re going to roll the dice with Rising in a game where they’re such clear favorites to win, especially with their maiden voyage into Big 12 Conference play beginning the following week.

Angles for Utah State

First off, you’re getting a definite buy-low spot for Utah State following a blowout loss that you can argue shouldn’t even throw them into that bad of a light. They’re up against it with a good opponent, but they are home on a field no Utah player has seen. While he didn’t show much last week, the Utah St. quarterback was good enough to get significant playing time on the team that is now favored by more than three TDs on the road. And that’s assuming Utah St. QB Spencer Petras isn’t ready to go and the Aggies go back to him, as the former 3-year Iowa starter has a lot of experience. With Rising out, Barnes may still have been Utah’s go-to guy. We don’t really know what we have with Isaac Wilson behind center for the Utes. And to make him a better than 3 TD favorite on the road is maybe asking a lot from a guy who just saw his first college football action last week. He is Zach’s brother and has the bloodlines, not to mention some pretty nice mechanics and a big-play ability. And even if he goes and he’s not ready, this is a Utah team built to thrive along many different lines, not just in the area of fine QB play. There are other areas defensively and on special teams where they have the Aggies dominated.

Utah’s Ticket to Success

The Utes will need to rely on a smothering and aggressive defense to rattle former teammate Barnes or Petras if he’s in. Again, the murkiness of the QB situation is tricky. Whittingham saying the Rising injury is not a big deal is not that revealing this early in the week. It would still be difficult to lay this many points on a team with such a fledgling quarterback behind center. I’d look for a heavy dose of the Utah run-game and while we don’t want to attribute too much importance to a blowout loss to USC, run-defense doesn’t immediately appear to be a strength the Aggies have going for them in the early season.

Take the Points

I see this as a spot where maybe the Aggies have more of an ax to grind, particularly Barnes, who will want to show out well in this spot against his former team if he gets the nod this week. For Utah, this is a week three spot against a weak opponent, a prelude to them beginning conference play in a new realm beginning the following week. For Utah State, however, it’s a home game against the team that has had them in their shadow for decades. And while it’s understandable to be down on them after last week, I hesitate in thinking this is one of those vintage Utah squads and I think Utah St. can sort of hang in there a little and cover the big number at home. I’ll take Utah State.

I’m betting on the Utah State Aggies plus 21.5 points.

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