Utah vs Arizona Week 12 Prediction: Expert College Football Picks

The Utah Utes come to Tucson on Saturday for a Pac-12 showdown with the Arizona Wildcats. Both teams enter this one at 7-3, looking for a strong close to the regular season to maybe book a nice bowl berth. Utah took their shot at top dog Washington last week, losing 35-28. Arizona, meanwhile, saw the second half of their season continue to go well with a 34-31 win at Colorado on Saturday. Back at home this week, can they keep it rolling or will Utah get back on track?

Could Be Tight

We see a razor-thin point spread. We see two teams with the same record. We also have two squads who have been dependable from a betting sense, going a combined 14-5-1 against the spread. Arizona, with an 8-2 mark ATS, has been particularly good. Also, in terms of overall trajectory, it is the Wildcats who have delivered down the stretch, entering this game on the heels of 4 big conference wins in a row. The Utes, meanwhile, have faltered a bit, with two losses in their last three. At any rate, this has the looks of a well-contested game on Saturday. Utah typically finishes seasons strongly, but they are taking on a different Arizona team that what we’re used to seeing.

What Arizona Has Become

Beating three ranked teams, then Colorado on the road has the Wildcats red-hot entering this matchup. Their narrow win on the road against the Buffaloes last week was only the second time they didn’t cover the spread this season. A win over a Utah team that is still ranked would give the Wildcats a stretch of success that might be unmatched in their history. Jedd Fisch has really gotten this group together in a big way. The inner resources it takes to revamp a program in this conference so dramatically can’t be taken lightly.

In addition to their moxie and coaching, the Wildcats wield a lot from a football perspective. Young QB Noah Fifita has seen this offense take off with him behind center, getting a big assist from RB Jonah Coleman and wide receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing (probable). Their pass-rush is immense and should really be a thorn in the side of the Utah passing game in front of a crowd that should be intense in Tucson this Saturday. Other than Colorado’s 31-point showing last week against this bunch, they had been a big part of Arizona’s success with some stout performances.

Is Utah OK?

Anyone being dismissive of Utah could pay in the final stretch of this season. They haven’t been able to uphold the same standard of excellence, with a handful of head-scratchers this season. Not having their first choice in there at QB hurt, as did some lack of continuity at the position. Non-competitive showings against Oregon State and Oregon were setbacks. They are still good enough, however, to take a first-half lead on the road against the Huskies, so thinking Arizona is safe could be a bad path to take. It’s still a rough stretch for the Utes, going into Seattle and now Tucson in consecutive weeks to take on tough teams.

We have seen a large disparity in effectiveness from QB Bryson Barnes and this Utah offense, depending on the types of teams they play. Against the lower-half of the conference, they seem to be in fine working order, only to deflate in a big way when taking on some of the bigger dogs. Last week wasn’t bad, though the Utes really dropped off after a good first half. At any rate, they’re a competent offense, but not one that excels in any particular area. And not that Arizona is foolproof on defense, as their failures on that side of the ball have been numerous this year, but they have been getting better over the course of the season.

Edges for Arizona

Not that the Wildcats are some iron-clad proposition in Tucson, but a one-score loss to conference-leader Washington is their only setback at home this season. This not being in Salt Lake City is a big break for the Wildcats. They also have a young QB who has stepped in and ascended, and while Utah’s Bryson Barnes hasn’t been bad thrust into the starting role, his performances have been more hit-and-miss. And with Arizona bringing the heat on Saturday in Tucson with the pass rush, it might not be a spot where he thrives. Not that this won’t be a challenge for Fifita, going against Jonah Elliss and this Utah pass-rush. Both QBs face challenges this week, but Fifita might have the edge.

Take the Small Home Dog

I’m not sure there is a smoke-and-mirrors aspect to Arizona’s success with the teams they have beaten and the run they’re on, turning things around in a massive way. This spread, with Utah being the tiny favorite, seems a tiny bit disrespectful to this home Arizona bunch this weekend. It is understandable with Arizona a newer addition to the top-end of the conference and Utah much more proven in this late-season context. With the Utes, we’ve seen it many times. This is different ground for the Wildcats, and it’s been a long time since there was a game with high stakes late in the season in Tucson. I just sense Arizona keeps it going this week and finds a way to get it done. I’ll take the Wildcats and the point.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Arizona Wildcats plus 1 point.