Utah vs. Arizona State Predictions: Expert CFB Picks & Best Bets (Week 7)

Utah Utes (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 7
Date/Time: Friday, October 11, 2024 at 10:30PM EDT
Where: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Arizona
TV: ESPN

The Utah Utes come into Tempe for a conference showdown with the Arizona State Sun Devils on Friday. These former Pac-12 rivals are now in the Big 12, but instead of the unfamiliar conference meetings each team will have this year, they get a familiar one this week. For Arizona State, the familiarity might not be welcome, with Utah having beaten them every year since 2018, including an unsightly 55-3 romp last season. This doesn’t appear to be the same Arizona State team, however, and at 4-1, they have already surpassed their win total for each of the last two seasons. Last week, they notched their first Big 12 Conference win with a 35-31 win over Kansas. Utah, meanwhile, tasted defeat for the first time this season in a 23-10 loss to Arizona, another deposed Pac-12 team now in the Big 12. Which of these 4-1 teams can get us the cover in Tempe this Friday?

Bad Signs Last Week for Utah

To lose by 13 as 7.5-point favorites at home against Arizona last week and score only ten points didn’t put Utah or their offense in a very good light. Quarterback Isaac Wilson has been pretty good filling in for what seems to be a perennially-injured Cameron Rising. Still, we saw him suffering last week, largely inaccurate, and unable to connect with his playmakers in a consistent way. Rising’s status for this week is still up in the air, which is typical. Trying to guess never seems to work out, and at this point, maybe a Utah backer can just look at it as a surprise if he happens to be back there. Without a doubt, this offense takes a step back without him behind center. In their tougher games this season, we’ve seen a Utah offense doing just enough to get by, and last week, it cost them.

How Much Weight is Behind Arizona State’s 4-1 Start?

Beyond the merits of their 4-1 start is the idea of a long-suffering team catching ahold of some good momentum and energy. This is a team with a lot of guys who have only known suffering, and this start has to be encouraging, with a loss to Texas Tech three weeks ago being their only setback of the season. So, maybe taking a fine-tooth comb over their record misses the point. There is something to be said for momentum when it gets reversed, which is something you can say for a 4-1 team that was 6-18 the last two years. Still, for the purposes of taking on a team that excels in being competent in an all-around way like Utah, a closer look is needed. Losing to a once-beaten Texas Tech team on the road is no shame. The teams they beat are not so flattering, with their first two wins over Wyoming and Mississippi State being against teams that each have won one game this season. Texas State is a Sun Belt team, and their first Big 12 win did come against a Kansas team that is now 1-5.

Utah, however, may not be in much of a position to talk. They get more of the benefit of the doubt based on their long-running history of being very capable under longtime head coach Kyle Whittingham. But to fall so short against Arizona didn’t reflect well, and while a win over Oklahoma State is the best win between the two teams, it’s not like wins over Utah State, a down Baylor, and Southern Utah have them in a non-assailable position.

Which Utah Will We Get?

It’s hard to balance in the mind the Utes’ 10-point performance last week, as opposed to their 55-point fiesta against the Sun Devils last season. To Arizona State’s credit, they’ve been better this season, as unproven as they might be overall. They’ve still allowed 89 combined points in the last three games. This could be a spot where we see Micah Bernard getting loose from the Utah backfield. They were able to do this damage on ASU last season also without Rising, so the Sun Devils are not above taking a beating even from Isaac Wilson and his targets—guys like tight end Brant Kuithe, and receivers Money Parks and USC transfer Dorian Singer.

Despite some uneven moments on the other side of the ball, we still see a Utah defense getting after it. Defensive end Van Fillinger is a very disruptive force and isn’t the only one who can get after the quarterback on that defense. The secondary can be stout and make big plays. But they are going against an Arizona State team where offense is their biggest step forward this season. Sam Leavitt has proven to be capable behind center, both with his arm and with his feet. And Cam Skattebo is also dually-dangerous, with 619 yards on the ground, while being useful as a pass-catcher too. They have been a consistently-producing unit this season, but are now dealing with what is their toughest matchup of the year.

Take the Points

I can understand the sentiment behind a Utah pick, especially with last year’s result and what might be some smoke and mirrors to Arizona State’s 4-1 start. I just think there are enough new pieces on each sideline to throw it into a different light, with those new pieces maybe playing out a little better for the Sun Devils than the Utes, or at least so far. I’d want to have confirmation on Rising’s status before making the move, but I think the combination of an improved ASU offense and a diminished Utah offense could make this a tricky road-spot for the Utes. I’ll take Arizona State and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Arizona State Sun Devils plus 6.5 points.