Utah Utes vs. Baylor Bears Week 2 Spread Pick
Utah Utes (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date and Time: Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 12PM EDT
Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: UT -7/BAY +7 (Wagerweb – Offers 20 point college football teasers!)
Over/Under Total: 49
The Utah Utes come to Waco for a Saturday afternoon showdown with the Baylor Bears in this Pac-12 vs. Big 12 matchup in week two. Utah had a successful week one, overcoming the absence of their starting QB and using two backups to manufacture a tidy 24-11 win over Florida last week. Their defense looked sharp, and they were able to win without Cam Rising. Things didn’t go so well for Baylor, one of the worst performers in week one. As 27-point favorites, they fell 42-31 to Texas State. It may be the low-point of Dave Aranda’s tenure, and they look to spin out of it at home against a tough opponent.
Looking Ahead for Utah
As we saw leading into week one, expecting guidance from Utah as to who will play quarterback isn’t dependable, leaving us to guess as to the identity of their starting quarterback. Cam Rising is expected to practice this week, which could mean he is going to play. Leading to them being even more careful could be how well Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson played or maybe how bad the Bears looked getting beaten by the likes of Texas State. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham could conceivably look at this Baylor defense and figure out what worked against Florida could likely subdue this bunch.
Matchup Issues for Baylor this Week
At times last week, we saw a Baylor offensive line tested to their limits by a Sun Belt pass rush. It really disrupted their flow, even if the offense did perform well in spots. They will be facing a far-stouter defense this week and one that was flashing their fangs when it comes to getting to quarterbacks. Time and again, the Utah pass-rush was in the face of Florida’s Graham Mertz, with Jonah Ellis leading the way with two sacks. Giving up only 11 to Florida certainly paints this defense in a good light, albeit with a reduced sample pool. It’s just that the opposite sideline has a defense that just gave up a ton to Texas State. It creates a stark dichotomy.
Tempering Initial Reads
Any veteran college football bettor would warn you about taking week one results too closely to heart. We are starved for information, and finally we have some—a real result where we see all the analysis manifest into something real after many months of waiting. It’s not that difficult to place a bunch of stock into a week one game. In fact, however, it is one game and not only that, it’s usually not that wonderful of a barometer with teams still shuffling a lot of pieces and working in different things.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t real information to be gleaned from week one games, but making any concrete judgments could lead to a rough early season of betting for those who run with the story a little too much. Utah looked pretty good, and Baylor looked bad. There are going to be weeks where that’s the case, or the opposite is the case, and it’s still just a week one window. Utah still has to come play at a Big 12 school out of their wheelhouse against a Baylor team being given a chance to make a lot of people forget about week one with what would be a huge win here.
Best Parlays
| 2 Team Parlay | 3 Team Parlay | 4 Team Parlay | |
|---|---|---|---|
 |
2.64 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 12.3 to 1 |
 |
2.64 to 1 | 5.95 to 1 | 12.3 to 1 |
 |
2.64 to 1 | 5.95 to 1 | 12.3 to 1 |
Issues for Utah
Last week, we saw Baylor’s defense get chewed up aerially in spots, while actually performing decently against the run. If the Utes again opt for their two-quarterback approach, they’re leaving some aerial prowess on the table with Rising. Barnes flashed a lively arm, connecting on the first play with Money Parks for a 70-yard TD strike. And when Nate Johnson came in, they were running almost a hybrid wishbone, using Johnson’s edges in athleticism. But it’s iffy whether that two-QB approach will provide the matchup issues that can put this Baylor defense in their worst light. You don’t necessarily think of aerial prowess when reflecting on Utah football, and it may even be less so without Rising.
When a defense allows 11 points to Florida, there isn’t much one can say. Still, Gators’ QB Graham Mertz was able to throw for 333 yards against this defense that will now be on the road facing a Baylor offense that isn’t shy about airing it out a lot. They threw for over 400 yards last week, with Blake Shapen leading the way before leaving the game with an injury. Sawyer Robertson came in and had some success, but two turnovers in the last two possessions showed he might not be ready. The aerial power they showed, however, still has to produce some concern for potential Utah backers this week.
Lay the Points
I could be wrong, but I think Baylor and Utah are heading in opposite directions. Since winning the Big 12 in ’21 with huge 12-win year, we’ve seen Baylor regress. Last week’s loss was their fifth in a row dating back to last season. While they may have retained enough offensive wherewithal to remain dangerous in spots, their O-line and defense has really sunk to low depths to where a team strong in the trenches like Utah might be all wrong for them. It’s a tough spot for the Utes to play, and I don’t question whether some urgency can manifest for a Baylor team already feeling some pressure. It’s just that they might not have the defense to assuage the Utah offense nor the line to repel what should be a robust pass rush this week. I see Utah getting a little separation and getting the win and cover in Waco.
Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Utah Utes minus 7 points.
It’s football betting season! It’s time to consider grabbing all the promos, perks and freebies you can get! Check out our best sportsbooks page to get the better of it all!
