Utah State Aggies vs. Boise State Broncos Analysis & Prediction ATS

Utah State Aggies (6-5 SU, ATS 4-6-0) vs Boise State Broncos (8-3 SU, ATS 5-5-1)

Date: Friday, November 25th

Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID

TV: CBS

Point Spread: Aggies +16/Broncos -16 (Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!)

Money Line: Aggies +527/Broncos -775

Over/Under: 54

RECENT FORM

Looking back to last season, the Aggies had an overall record of 6-5 while going 5-2 in conference play. The Aggies have been favored this season in 6 games while posting an ATS mark of 4-6-0. Their average over-under betting line is 48.23 leading to an over-under record of 4-6-0.

In their last game, the Aggies are coming off a 35-31 win over San Jose State. In addition, they added an ATS win, as they were 1.5-point favorites on the spread. In the win, Utah State completed 65.7 of their 35 passes, 1 of which resulted in a touchdown. The team ended the game with three rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 186 yards on the ground.

Heading into the matchup, Cooper Legas has an overall passer rating of 84.9 on a total of 1159 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for ten touchdowns and seven interceptions. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Brian Cobbs, who has caught 62 passes for a total of 739 yards. The Aggies have turned to running back Calvin Tyler Jr. a total of 219 times for a total of 978 rushing yards.

The Broncos come into the game with an overall record of 8-3. This strong play includes going 7-0 in Mountain West action. The Broncos have been favored in 9 games this season while posting an ATS mark of 5-5-1. Their average over-under betting line is 46.95 leading to an over-under record of 5-6-0.

In their previous game, the Broncos picked up a 20-17 home win over Wyoming. This victory was impressive as they were also the 14.0-point underdogs. In the win, Boise State completed 58.8 of their 34 passes, one of which resulted in a touchdown. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 6.3 yards per carry for a total of 269 yards.

Heading into the matchup, Taylen Green has an overall passer rating of 94.48 on a total of 1511 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Through the air, the team will be looking for a big game from leading receiver Stefan Cobbs. On the season, he has caught 29 for 396 yards. In the run game, George Holani has accumulated 977 yards on 185 attempts to lead the team.

BETTING TRENDS

In their last ten contests, the Aggies have a straight-up record of 5-5-0 while covering the spread at a rate of 50.0%. The team’s average scoring differential was -8.0, as they averaged 22.5 points per game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 30.5 points. Their last ten over-under record is 4-6-0.

When looking at their past five road matchups, Utah State has an ATS record of 1-4-0 while averaging 19.6 per game. The team went 2-3-0 overall in these games.

In their last ten games, Boise State has covered the spread at a rate of 80.0% while putting together a straight-up record of 8-2-0. Their last ten over-under record comes in at 5-5-0. Boise State has a positive scoring differential in these games, averaging 30.3 points per game and allowing 15.6.

Across their last five home contests, Boise State has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2-0. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1-0 while averaging 36.4 points per game.

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Aggies will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 100th in the NCAA in points scored.

In this week’s matchup, Utah State has a matchup against a Boise State defense that is giving up 17.27 points per game and is allowing opponents to convert 3rd downs at a rate of just 30.0%. This presents a problem for the Aggies offense, as they are one of worst performing team’s on 3rd down this season.

A key to the Aggies’ chances in this matchup will be their ability to find some measure of success in the passing game. Throughout the season, they are a below-average unit in pass attempts per game and will be facing a Boise State defense that is allowing opponents to complete passes at a rate of just 52.15%.

Although Utah State is ranked 16th in attempts per game, they are averaging just 162.09 rush yards per contest. This output places them 58th in the NCAA. This week, the Aggies will face a Boise State defense ranked 52nd in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 170.43 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Broncos will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 62nd in the NCAA in points scored.

Although Boise State has struggled to move the chains on 3rd down throughout the season, they have a chance to take advantage against a Utah State defense that is allowing an average of 29.55 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a Boise State offense that struggles to generate big plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off a Utah State defense that has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Aggies are just 111st in sacks per game.

So far, the Boise State offense is near the NCAA average in rushing, averaging 188.82 yards per game on the ground. This year, they have handed the ball off an average of 39.55 times per game, placing them 36th in the country. This week, the Broncos will be facing a Utah State defense that is ranked 159th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 190.0 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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