USC vs. UCLA ATS Pick: Rivalry Clash in Week 13

USC Trojans (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. UCLA Bruins (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 10:30PM EST
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
TV: NBC

The USC Trojans take on the UCLA Bruins in a Big Ten Conference showdown on Saturday. This cross town rivalry, long a fixture of the Pac-12, is now taking place in the Big Ten. In some ways, it feels strange seeing a Big Ten Conference game between LA schools. But with a lot of transition going on with these two schools, maybe they can do better in a more-familiar matchup in a comfortable setting. Either way, it’s nice to see this annual rivalry persist for the time being and despite some spells where USC was dominating this matchup over the years, it has been recently competitive with each team having six wins apiece in the last 12 years. In what has been a rough season for the Trojans, they at least enter this off a win, getting to .500 last week with a 28-20 win over Nebraska. The Bruins, however, fell to 4-6 after a 31-19 loss to Washington.

Hope for the Trojans

Last week, we saw Jayden Maiava behind center for the Trojans for the first time this season, leading them to a win over Nebraska with three TD throws. Presumably, that should help him maintain the starting QB gig, as USC looks to pump some life into what has been an underachieving offense. The veteran QB might not be electric, but knows what he’s doing and has a good back in Woody Marks to lean on, while he makes the best of a pass-catching corps that has yet to really identify a star amongst the lot. Still, there is some talent, and last week was a decent enough sneak peak of what Maiava can generate for this offense in the closing weeks of the regular season.

The Trojans have done well in some spots, but adjusting to a whole new conference framework was too much for a team in flux to negotiate. The same can be said for the Bruins. But while this is a home game for the Bruins, the Trojans are still close to home. They looked decent-enough coming off the bye last week, following what was an ugly loss to the Huskies, another deposed former Pac-12 rival. Still, they’ve been put in pretty tough spots this season and maybe this opponent and locale will just be more to their liking.

Can the Bruins Bounce Back?

Things were looking dire for the Bruins before a three-game spurt restored some order. Like the Trojans, they also fell victim to a not-so-great Huskies team last week, falling flat in their effort to push their momentum after winning three straight games as betting underdogs. QB Ethan Garbers wasn’t bad on the day, throwing a couple of touchdowns. They couldn’t run the ball that well, which is a recurring theme for this Bruins offense. And their defense started wilting more as the game progressed after keeping the Bruins in there for most of the game.

Still, there’s something to be said for having the more-positive recent form, as it appeared the Bruins were rounding into shape and becoming more accustomed with their new conditions. In the three games before losing to Washington, they were getting some big plays on both sides of the ball late in games, with that clutch play getting them some hard-fought wins. They were actually looking quite good for a team that has been nosediving, losing five in a row after a 16-13 season-opening win over Hawaii. And sure, it fell flat last week at a time when one may have been expecting the Bruins to do better. But at home and in a rivalry-game of this nature, I wouldn’t count out the Bruins coming into this with a lot of gusto.

The Chaotic Nature of This Rivalry

Things have certainly changed, with the Pac-12 having dissolved for the time being and these teams being in the Big Ten now. But maybe it’s still early enough in the transition to not really matter, and we can still count on some things being the same when these two teams tangle. It is typically one of those rivalries where, even if it sounds cliché, it’s a game where you can throw the records out. With both teams milling around the .500 mark, that might not count for much. But the point is that whatever stance you happen upon regarding this game, it’s traditionally a matchup where a lot of conventional football analysis ends up not mattering. And even if a lot has changed format-wise, it’s still the battle for LA. Neither of these teams is going to have any real glory on the table this season, and this could be the last chance for either team to notch that nice little nugget on the ledger in what has otherwise been a down year for both squads.

Take the Points

This should be a game where both teams have a chance to get some things cooking offensively, as each defense can hit some pretty low notes from time to time. Something tells me, however, that it won’t really be an offensive bonanza, and having a little buffer points-wise won’t hurt. The USC offense is still laboring in spots, and I think the UCLA defense can make enough stands while getting enough out of their own run game and Woody Marks to keep this one in the ballpark. I’ll take the Bruins.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the UCLA Bruins plus 4.5 points.

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