USC vs. Michigan Predictions & Pick for Week 4

No. 11 USC Trojans (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 21st, 2024, 3:30 PM (EST)
Where: Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI.
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: USC -5.5/MICH +5.5
Moneyline: USC -225/MICH +195
Total: 47.5

For the first time this season, the 11th ranked USC Trojans will hit the road for a Big Ten opener against the no. 18 Michigan Wolverines. Following a 2-0 SU (2-0 ATS) start to the season which included wins over no. 13 LSU and a 48-0 shutout against Utah State, the Trojans will enter Saturday’s road trip with some extra rest following an early season bye week. Thus far, USC has passed the eye test and appears to be the frontrunner in the expanded Big Ten Conference. However, those expectations will be put to the test once again this Saturday when they enter Ann Arbor as mere 5.5 point betting favorites over the Wolverines.

While the Trojans have passed all of their early tests, the same cannot be said for the Michigan Wolverines who will host their 4th straight game inside Michigan Stadium. The defending National Champions have returned another stellar defense that has been displayed early in their 2024 campaign however struggles on the offensive side of the ball have overshadowed everything. Those offensive woes were blatantly obvious in the blowout loss to no. 2 Texas and were evident against last week when Michigan squeezed out a measly 28-18 victory over Arkansas State as more than 21 point favorites. Those struggles have culminated into a decision that was made on Monday by Head Coach Sherrone Moore who will make a change at quarterback with junior Alex Orji getting the nod for this Saturday’s big conference opener against the Trojans!

USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis

Former Wolverines starting QB Davis Warren tossed 6 interceptions through the first 3 games of the season with just 2 passing touchdowns to his credit. The turnovers have been a huge burden for a Wolverines team that has established the bulk of their success by maintaining ball control through a strong running game and even stronger play on the defensive side of the football. Despite the coaching change this year, that is still the style of football that the Wolverines hope to employ and perhaps Alex Orji will give them the best opportunity going forward. Orji has not received a ton of playing time to this point in his career but he is a more athletic dual-threat quarterback that should give defenses more concerns. With that being said, I have not seen anything that would suggest this change at quarterback will be a night vs. day difference going into Saturday’s showdown with the Trojans.

Despite the change at quarterback, the Wolverines are going to continue their heavy focus on running the football behind Kalel Mullings. However, the Trojans defense has been pretty solid against the run yielding just 100 yards per game through their opening two contests. More importantly, I believe the Trojans will move more men into the box this week with the added rushing threat of Orji and will dare the Michigan offense to beat them over the top. With that being said, I’m not exactly ecstatic in the Trojans match-up on the offensive side of the football either. Despite the constant turnover issues, the Wolverines are still an elite defense. USC QB Miller Moss has a ton of hype surrounding him at the moment but I believe this is a “prove it” style game for the junior quarterback. I don’t see USC having a big advantage in this game and believe the Michigan defense will make things very tough with the home crowd at their back.

USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends

• USC is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games.
• USC has hit the “under” in 4 of the last 5 games.
• USC has hit the “over” in 7 of the last 8 games on the road.
• USC is 0-8 ATS in the last 8 games against Big Ten opponents.
• Michigan is 17-1 SU in the last 18 games.
• Michigan is 19-1 SU in the last 20 games at home.
• Michigan is 20-0 SU in the last 20 games against Big Ten opponents.
• Michigan is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games as the betting favorite.

USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Prediction

I would not be surprised if this is a somewhat ugly battle that is dominated by the defenses on both sides of the ball. I lean towards taking Michigan and the points because I feel both of these teams are evenly matched. However due to the strong defensive match-ups and the fact we have a near 50 point total, I believe the best bet for this game will be the “under.”

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 47.5!