USC vs. LSU Predictions: Week 1 College Football Picks

The USC Trojans meet the LSU Tigers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, as both teams open up their season in this big marquee Sunday showdown in the desert. You have two big programs kicking off their seasons in a dangerous matchup where anything can happen. With the Pac-12 falling apart, USC now is in the Big Ten, and rather than being eased into action in this pivotal season, they get SEC power LSU. With two straight double-digit win seasons under Brian Kelly, LSU is looking for big things this season, so something has to give. With the expanded playoff format, this is a game with wide-ranging ramifications. Who should we get behind in this big-time season opener?

Challenges for Southern Cal

There is a lot on the plate for the Trojans, and third-year head coach Lincoln Riley faces a lot of challenges. They lost Caleb Williams, who went with the first pick in the draft. They have been jettisoned to a new conference where they will be working with different disadvantages in the areas of familiarity and, in many ways, style of play. After a big start to the season last year, they fell to astounding depths to close out the campaign, entering this season with the negative momentum of that rotten second half to ’23.

The Trojans really hit the skids in the second half of last year, and that’s not easy to do with the first pick in the draft at quarterback, which leaves a lasting testament to how bad the USC defense was last season. There is a lot to address and going against LSU in game one is a mighty-tricky entrance exam for the ’24 Trojans. This defense will be put to the test right away and better be prepared to hit the ground running. Any version of the “D” that gave up 41 to Colorado and Arizona, 48 to Notre Dame, 49 to Cal, and 52 to Washington is going to have issues against a good SEC offense. However, if I were an LSU backer this week, I’d hesitate to project that you’re likely to see a bottom-end version of the Southern Cal defense on Sunday.

Is USC Sneaky in this Spot?

Perhaps some swelled expectations have made Lincoln Riley’s first two years look worse than they are, though it’s been underwhelming. Despite some blue-chip talent in select positions, he was still working with a lot of the pieces of his predecessor and key among that was a shaky defense. With a new coordinator, you know this is an area of emphasis, and while that alone will not necessarily yield results, you have to think that it at least might to some degree.

QB Miller Moss was amazing in the USC bowl win, waiting patiently behind Williams. LSU counters with Garrett Nussmeier, who also was behind a Heisman winner in Jayden Daniels. I’d expect both to be able to hit the ground running this week in this matchup. While USC may have revamped their coaching staff and is focused on their newfound emphasis on defense, if they’re going to stay in the thick of this battle, it will be their studs on offense that do a lot of the heavy lifting.

What to Look For

Both teams have a new look behind center with two guys who are familiar with the system. Each of those QBs and their respective offenses will be going against defenses that left something to be desired last season, leading to coaching staff upheavals on that side of the ball. Both quarterbacks will be in a position to put some pressure on these defenses. Moss can test that shaky LSU secondary and see if they’re on their game. And Nussmeier can see if this USC “D” can handle what they can throw at them. It might be Moss who can handle more of a load, as Nussmeier will be working with a new play-caller. If Moss can start quickly and start hitting those quick passes like we saw briefly during last season, it’s going to put a lot of stress on an LSU defense that won’t be able to unveil their massive talent and guys like Harold Perkins if they’re being run ragged in the back end.

Moss, with the talent he has around him and guys like Zachariah Branch, might be able to get out there and test an LSU defense that still isn’t quite ready for primetime. What the Tigers’ “D” lacks in proficiency, however, they can make up by being aggressive. The prospect of Moss being a great fit for Riley’s system, slipping right in here, and serving notice against this defense that USC is back on track is a distinct possibility. And we’ve seen them start seasons strongly before under Riley. I’m just not so sure that I’d bank on an LSU defense being that cooperative.

Lay the Number

I think Moss can fit in well and keep USC dangerous on the basis of a smoothly-run offense with a lot of dangerous pieces on it. It’s just that LSU has no many weapons through the air and on the ground that you’d like to see the USC defense handle spots like this before taking the leap of faith. I see LSU with Kelly and their coaching staff taking a really proactive and aggressive approach on Sunday, as it pays off with a win and a cover in Las Vegas. I’ll take the Tigers in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the LSU Tigers minus 4 points.