USC Trojans vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick ATS

USC Trojans (6-0 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, October 14th, 7:30 PM

Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: USC +2.5 / ND -2.5 (Bet your picks at reduced juice! It’s better!)

Over/Under Total: 62.5

The USC Trojans head east to Indiana to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for a Saturday night showdown in South Bend. This year’s battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh will be the 94th meeting between the teams, with Notre Dame holding a 50-38-5 all-time advantage. The Irish have won four of the last five in the series, but it was the Trojans who won their most recent matchup with a 38-27 victory a season ago.

WHERE THEY STAND

Notre Dame’s BCS hopes ended a week ago with their second loss in the past three games, this time on the road against Louisville after having previously dropped a heartbreaker on the last play against Ohio State. The Trojans’ title chances remain as they are one of thirteen undefeated teams still left in the country, though their schedule is about to get a lot harder with games coming up against Notre Dame, Utah, Washington, and Oregon in the next five weeks. This will be a major step up in competition for USC after having been favored by over 21 points in all six of their games to start the 2023 campaign.

WILL TO WIN

The biggest reason for the Trojans’ success has been the play of quarterback Caleb Williams. It is easy to see why Williams is projected to be the top pick in the NFL Draft next year. He also finds himself in a great position to join Archie Griffin as the only player in NCAA history to win two Heisman trophies in their career after Caleb took home the award a season ago and is in the odds-on favorite to win in 2023. The USC signal-caller has been incredibly proficient throughout his time with USC, posting a 22-1 TD/INT ratio this year and overall numbers of 59 touchdown passes compared to only five interceptions in his twenty career games for the Trojans. Through the air is far from his only talent, as Williams led the team in rushing touchdowns a season ago with ten and is doing so again this year with six scores on the ground.

CATCHING CALEB

The top Trojan targets for Williams in the passing game are wide receivers Tahj Washington and Brendan Rice. Both are tied for the team lead with 21 catches on the season and have at least 430 yards receiving while combining for twelve touchdown receptions. There is other talent behind them, including Mario Williams, Dorian Singer, Zachariah Branch, and Duce Robinson, but it’s pretty clear who Caleb Williams’ top two choices are and who he will have to rely on heavily against a Notre Dame pass defense that ranks 3rd in the country in yards allowed per game. Though those defensive numbers for the Irish are a bit inflated, considering they have only played two teams that have a passing offense ranked higher than 95th (Ohio State and Louisville), and they lost to both of them.

WON’T BE IGNORED

With an offense that ranks 1st in scoring and 4th in yards per game, thanks in large part to their double Heisman hopeful and his 3rd ranked passing offense, it’s very easy to forget about the USC running game. That would be a big mistake for the Notre Dame defense to make, considering the talent in the Trojan backfield that exists led by Marshawn Lloyd. The junior transfer from South Carolina has averaged an impressive 7.7 yards per carry this season while posting four scores and rushing for over 75 yards in each of his last five games. The Irish will have to be consistent in their defensive coverage, as putting all their effort into containing Caleb Williams would likely lead to a second straight big game for an opposing back after Jahwar Johnson of Louisville just an all over them.

ALT DELETE

Last week’s letdown against Louisville was tough to watch for Irish fans, and what was most surprising was the porous play of their offensive line. Led by Joe Alt, one of the top OL prospects in the draft, the Notre Dame had their worst game of the season, opening up nothing for lead back Audric Estime while also allowing constant pressure on quarterback Sam Hartman. The Estime-led backfield should find things easier this week against a USC defense that ranks 90th against the run and 112th in total yards allowed per game, and getting him more involved has proven to be successful in the standings for the Irish as they are 7-0 in games that Estime has at least 15 carries.

HART ISSUES

After starting his season off with seventeen touchdowns and just four interceptions in his first four games, Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman has since seen his stats take a nosedive. In his last three games, all against ranked teams, Hartman has thrown just three touchdowns total with a matching three interceptions. While not all of the blame can be put on him, the offensive line has been horrendous at times, and the receivers aren’t getting consistently open; he has still had his fair share of questionable throws. Thankfully for Hartman, USC is the last currently ranked team on their regular season schedule (he is 2-5 in his last seven games against top 25 opponents), and he should have a good chance to get his season back on track against a Trojan pass defense that ranks a dismal 116th in yards allowed per game.

MITCH-A-PALOOZA

Going into the season, the Irish tight end position was one of the biggest question marks after the loss of Michael Mayer. Mitchell Evans has since emerged as Hartman’s most effective and reliable target through air. The junior tight end leads the team in catches and receiving yards and has seen a significant uptick in production over the last few weeks against their strongest competition. After posting just ten receptions in his first nine college games, Evans has 17 catches over his last three matchups and last week caught his first touchdown. This is a good step up in production compared to the wide receivers this year, especially considering not a single player at the position has more than four receptions in a game the entire year. Starters Jayden Thomas and Chris Tyree have not been able to find the necessary space to get open, with converted back Tyree never even topping three receptions in a week all year, in addition to having a touchdown drop last week against Louisville that had a major impact on the outcome. With the offensive line struggling, Sam Hartman will be hoping for his and the teams’ sake that someone at the wide receiver position steps up sooner rather than later.

THE FINAL DECISION

Despite the fact that the Irish have a clear successful streak when lighting up the scoreboard (they are 60-1 in their last 61 regular season games when scoring over 21 points), they will be hoping to control the clock and not turn Saturday into a track meet against the superior offensively Trojans. Points can certainly be expected this week. In USC’s last fourteen games, the Over has hit thirteen times, but how effective Estime and the Notre Dame run game will likely be one of the biggest determining factors in whether or not they can right the ship of the season.

Betting on trends and past history isn’t usually the smartest option, but until Notre Dame can consistently win against quality competition, I can’t possibly back them at the bank. They are now 7-33 in their last 40 games against Top 12 teams, and while they do usually win when they score points, as evidenced by the record above, that one loss in their last 61 was against the Trojans last year to end the regular season. USC’s last twelve victories in the series have been by an average of over 22 points per game, and while I don’t expect them to necessarily win huge on Saturday, I will definitely be taking the points and siding with Caleb Williams to get the road cover on Saturday under the lights at Notre Dame Stadium.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:

USC +2.5