USC Trojans (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Las Vegas Bowl
Date and Time: Saturday, December 21, 2013 3:30pm EST
Where: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas NV
TV: ABC
by Tim, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: USC -6/FSU +6
Over/Under Total: 62
Bet your Southern Cal/Fresno St. pick at an online sportsbook where you can deposit $100, make a $100 bet and get a $100 bet FREE: Sportsbook.
Here we go BabyIts Bowl time in the good ole US of A!! The Color of Money Royal Purple Las Vegas Next To Area 51 Bowl has so many little twists and turns in the plotline, I just dont know where to start? USC comes in after a hellacious re-constituting of their program. First, the Trojan hordeled by the Imperial Cassius Pat Haden–dumped Kiffin on the tarmac of LAX and gave interim Grandpa Ed Orgeron the old It isnt you Ed; its me Hollywood walking papers trick. Fresno State ventures into this game on the back of Derek Carr sporting more yards passed than a tweaked Meth dealer in a suburban car chase! The clash of these intercontinental Titans promises to be a classic raised pinky finger versus Hunter S. Thompson on a bender Las Vegas extravaganza!! Lets take a look at these two highly volatile teams and pick a winner.
USC handled Ed Orgerons ExitStage Left act about as well as a Friday Night sitcom. Putting Mel or any other arbitrary assistant in-charge of this game is EXTREMELY important when deciding who might cover the spread between these two teams. Fresno States situation is much more stable and this Bowl game offers no incentive for a team that wins. Fresno Head Coach Tim DeRuyter is in his second year engineering a Top O the World Ma performance for the Fresno program by taking the Bulldogs 19-4 in 12 and 13 without a rabbit or top hat! The only knock on DeRuyters resume is Hes a defensive coach primarily and, in the Mountain West, offense is the name of the game (except at New Mexico where neither is played!). USC is unstable with Mel or Steve-O at the helm. Think about it: If any assistant at SC ( Mel or Steve-Oet al) was capable of managing a USC team successfully, wouldnt they have been interviewed for the job? Jus sayinits a big deal!
Yes, as soon as the Win one for coach O wears off—on or after the opening kickoff (or 17 points down!)—TALENT and an ORGANIZED GAMEPLAN will be the Ricola (throat lozenges) for the day. Fresno and SC are right around 6 points difference in Power Ratingsif Orgeron was in place! But with Orgeron gone, fishing, or hunting, or skipping, or whatever hes doing, and this game played at a neutral site, however neutral a proximity to the world famous Chicken Ranch can be, then we need to look at some matchups of mano-a-mano combat. First on the list: Derek Carr versus the SC defensive pressure.
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Fresno State played Utah State and SDSU carrying the closest pressure defense that resembles USCs 2013 D. Fresno beat SDSU in OT 35-28 and beat Utah State in the last game of 2013 24-17. Fresnos 62-52 loss against San Jose State is also noteworthy because a pattern—between close wins (and a loss) and the rest of Fresnos wins—exits between How well Fresno RUNS the ball and Fresnos ability to beat teams through the air. Fresno throws it, no doubt, but Fresno also runs the ball pretty well to set up the pass; sitting 70th in rushing in the nation. But in Fresnos two very tight wins and the loss mentioned above, Fresnos RB Josh Quezada 126 yards combined. Josh Quezada in the 8 other games rushed for 661 yards or 83 yards per game. In the 2 tight games and loss, Quezada averaged just 42 yards per game. Beating people upfront is the key to Fresnos success. Fresno must be able to run the ball or they will struggle! USC has the 19th ranked rushing defense in the country! If you think the reason USC is so strong against the rush because everyone theyve played throws it against USC with ease, USC is the 32nd ranked passing defense in the country (and that is playing against pass happy, Oregon State, Washington State, and ASU). In those three PAC12 games mentioned, USC allowed 5 passing TDs while snagging 6 Picks! Only Washington States QB Conner Halliday attempts more passes per game than Carr, but Carr still averages 50 passes per game. But Carrs numbers are skewed. Carr ranks only 29th in yardage per completion in College Football suggesting he dips and dunks screens, bubble screens, and TEs crossing in front of the LBs as a sort of substitute running game.
Derek Carr is a great college QBin the Mountain West. USC has a few incredibly athletic LBs and secondary personnel who understand how to defend a high achieving Mountain West QB. It really doesnt matter if Henry Kissinger, Paula Abdul, or Justin Bieber (okaymaybe not Bieber?) coaches the USC team. As long as the coaches can keep the players from the Craps table and outta the Tattoo Parlors, this Las Vegas Bowl is gonna be the second coming of Julius Caesar hopping over the Rubicon. Take a picture of potential 1st Rounder Derek Carr before warm-upsif you wait until after the game, youll take a picture of a possible 4th Rounder. USC and lay the pointsthis game could get stinkin U-G-L-Y!!!! USC BIG!
Tims Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Southern California Trojans -6
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