USC Trojans vs. Colorado Buffaloes Point Spread Pick

USC Trojans (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Colorado Buffaloes (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)

College Football Week 5

Date and Time: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 12PM EDT

Where: Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado

TV: Fox

Point Spread: USC -22/COLO +22 (Betanysports – Allows you to lay -105 instead of -110! HUGE!)

Money Line: USC -1400, Colorado +750

Over/Under Total: 73.5

The USC Trojans come to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes in a big Pac-12 battle on Saturday. The Trojans posted a 42-28 win over Arizona State on Saturday for their fourth straight win to start the season, upping their conference mark to 2-0 on the young season. For Colorado, last week was a reality sandwich of sorts, served up a 42-6 beating in Eugene to the Ducks in their first taste of high-end Pac-12 action. They are again in that context this week. Can they deliver a better showing, or will we see a Trojans’ romp?

Not Running with Either Story

The rampant hype surrounding Deion Sanders and the Colorado program notwithstanding, most level-headed college football observers were aware that they would hit a wall in conference play, so perhaps last week’s collapse to the Ducks wasn’t so earth-shattering. Still, placing it in its proper context might be tricky. There’s little argument that coach Sanders has provided a giant boost to a program, but that might not have been that hard with the Buffaloes overturned on their backs. Already tripling last season’s win total has to count for something.

But even before the Oregon loss, there were signs of trouble, first manifesting when they needed double-overtime to beat Colorado State as 22.5-point favorites. And then not even coming close to their 21.5-point allowance against Oregon shows that the Buffaloes were generally being overvalued, an understandable byproduct of all the national hype. The urge now might be to backlash too far the other way, to write off the Buffaloes and take the Oregon result as a formula for how they will perform in the future when placed in this context.

Pros and Cons for Colorado this Week

One takeaway from last week might be that the Colorado defense will be up against it versus the more high-powered Pac-12 offenses. And in that vein, USC might not be the team you want to see. Returning Heisman winner Caleb Williams commandeers a high-powered Southern Cal offense that has put up 214 combined points in four games, and with two of those coming in conference play, it gives it more teeth. They have a half-dozen receivers who can all do damage, along with a cast of backs with varied skills, all coming together under the dual-threat abilities of their fine quarterback, Williams, who has 12 TDs and zero picks through 4 games. Also sullying Colorado’s prospects is the knee injury to two-way player Travis Hunter, which deprives them of perhaps their biggest talent.

One possible benefit for the Buffaloes is that they get this one at home. Granted, it’s before the conditions in Boulder really manifest in a way that troubles incoming conference foes, but it still doesn’t hurt. After two uneven performances and last week’s slapstick, one would also have to assume the urgency will be abundant to not relinquish the good start and go into a swoon. And while the Trojans might be the most dangerous team in the conference, their defense isn’t a team strength. Against an Arizona State squad last week where the Sun Devils came in completely discombobulated personnel-wise at QB, ASU was still able to be in there behind only 35-28 midway through the fourth quarter. Throw in the 28 they gave up to San Jose St. earlier this season, and maybe we will see the Colorado offense and QB Shadeur Sanders come to life a little bit and make a run at this spread.

Line in the Sand Moment for Colorado

Things will get easier for Colorado, and it’s rough on a young team that hasn’t jelled yet to open their conference play in such difficult fashion, taking on a pair of national contenders in the Ducks and Trojans. And if they get their clocks cleaned again, maybe the only thing that shows is that they’re not ready to be competitive with the better teams in the country. And whoever thought they were going to be? But still, if they want to rise to a certain level this season, they’re going to have to do better than getting bombed in their toughest games.

It’s just that against these types of ultra-talented rosters with teams that have had time to congeal and cement their identity, it takes more than urgency and motivation. In this conference, when you’re not up-to-snuff, things can get ugly. And maybe for the Buffaloes, scoring a few wins in conference and getting to a bowl game would represent a great start to the Sanders era. And a team like that might be in trouble against the Trojans. The Colorado secondary is going to be easy work for a smooth operator like Williams. They can make plays, but without Hunter, the Southern Cal aerial offense is too deep. And against the run, there isn’t much cause for optimism, either. Marshawn Lloyd, Quinten Joyner, and Austin Jones are all candidates to go off on Saturday.

Lay the Points

The thing is, if USC really pours it on the Buffaloes, the pendulum might swing too far the other way to make Colorado an interesting value moving forward. I just think that these high-level conference matchups aren’t going to show the Buffaloes in the best light. They have ample talent on both sides of the ball with a real motivator captaining the ship, neither of which will be enough to hang in there with a flawed but dangerous and powerful force in the Trojans. I’m going with Southern Cal in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the USC Trojans minus 22 points. Bet your Week 5 college football picks for FREE by scoring a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at the web’s oldest sportsbook! Here’s how you can get this: Register for an account through this special link at Everygame Sportsbook. Deposit your funds. Then go directly to their “Special Offers” page and enter bonus code PREDICTEM. The bonus dollars will show up instantly in your sports betting account balance!