USC Trojans at Maryland Terrapins Best Bet

NCAAF – USC Trojans at Maryland Terrapins
Where: SECU Stadium (College Park, MD)
When: Saturday, October 19th at 4:00 PM EST
Watch: Fox Sports 1

Betting Odds

• USC Trojans: -7.0
• Over/Under: 56.5

With both programs coming off disappointing losses last week, the USC Trojans and the Maryland Terrapins are looking ahead to Saturday’s contest for a much-needed bounce-back opportunity. These two teams are very even in many regards, and with USC’s addition to the Big 10, they are likely to see each other a lot over the next few seasons. Both of these schools have a rich history in the world of college football, but the here and now has been a bit of a rollercoaster. It is unlikely that either program will find its way into the expanded college football playoff in 2024, but there is plenty left to build on the rest of the way, and it can all start in College Park on Saturday. Even with their similarities, there are some major differences in scheme that will exploit the other’s weaknesses and allow one of these teams a clear path to victory and a much-needed addition to the win column. I’ve analyzed the recent performances of the Trojans and the Terrapins and will break down each team below before giving out my pick in this contest. My best play for this Big 10 matchup will be crystal clear after reading what I’ve learned about both squads through 6 games.

USC Trojans Breakdown

The USC Trojans will hit the road for a long journey to Maryland this weekend, and they will do so after dropping their last game against Penn State at home. This was a game that the Trojans could have easily won as they found themselves with a 14-point lead at the half. USC finds themselves 3-3 on the year, and all of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. They are a highly competitive group, but the adjustment to the Big 10 has not come without its challenges.

USC’s offensive group features standout quarterback Miller Moss, who can light up the scoreboard in a hurry. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes this season and averages just under 270 yards per game. Moss has established connections with four primary receivers who all have surpassed 20 catches and roughly 200 yards. In red zone situations, Moss tends to favor wide receiver Ja’Kobi Lane, who leads the Trojans with 4 TDs. USC’s offense ranks 36th nationally in passing yards per game and likes to throw more than they like to run. They are no slouches when it comes to rushing, however, and behind Woody Marks, they have ten rushing TDs this year. Marks has over 100 rushing attempts and has piled up 579 scrimmage yards, meaning he is nearly at the century mark each game. This balance has allowed the Trojans to average 30.7 points per game.

As a defense, USC is in the middle of the pack. They concede 354.3 total yards per game, over 150 of which are on the ground. They are a stingy unit when it comes to defending 3rd down opportunities and find themselves just outside of the top 50 in all of college football. Getting to the quarterback is not a proficiency of this defense, but rather, they play a bend but don’t break style. Forcing turnovers will be key as they face a Maryland offense that can sling the ball.

Maryland Terrapins Breakdown

The Maryland Terrapins also sit at 3-3 on the year, and similarly to USC, they enter this contest on a 2-game losing streak. Maryland laid an absolute egg at home against Northwestern in a game that most projections had them winning. Prior to that, Maryland fell to Indiana and has yet to beat a Big 10 opponent this season.

Behind QB Billy Edwards, Maryland likes to throw the ball a lot. Edwards has attempted 228 passes and averages 290 yards per game through the air. His 11 touchdowns against just three interceptions highlight his ability to keep the ball secure, and his 68.4% completion percentage is superb. The clear number one target in this offense is Tai Felton, who looks poised to continue his monster 2024 campaign. He has caught 55 passes for a total of 719 yards and winds up in the end zone nearly 10% of the time he is targeted. He is a high-motor athlete who can get open underneath or over the top. Kaden Prather is the secondary pass catcher but has half the yardage of Felton and 21 fewer receptions. Prather has added three scores to his season stats, and if double coverage takes Felton away, he will prove to be a serviceable option for Edwards.

On the ground, Roman Hemby leads the way with 360 rushing yards on 74 carries. He is averaging just a hair under 5 yards per attempt, but he can also make plays as a receiver out of the backfield. Maryland likes to use their QB in short-yardage situations and Edwards actually finds himself with the most carries on the team behind Hemby.

Defensively, Maryland is stout against the run and only concedes an average of 106.3 rushing yards per game, good for 43rd in the country. They will need to improve their pass defense as they are a unit that allows over 250 yards per game through the air, which ranks them 224th nationally.

My Pick: Over 56.5 (-110)

This game has all the makings of a shootout, and I am expecting a high-scoring affair. Two teams that favor the pass and like to play quickly will extend this game. Both USC and Maryland can beat coverage over the top and have the skill players to create separation. They will utilize the run when necessary, but mainly to set up passing opportunities. I have very little faith in either defensive group since neither has shown a propensity to disrupt plays in the backfield or generate turnovers at a high level. Take the over here and enjoy the show.