UNM at SDSU Predictions: Loot’s ATS Pick | CFB Week 11

New Mexico Lobos (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Date/Time: Friday, November 8, 2024 at 10:30 PM EST
Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
TV: Fox Sports One

The New Mexico Lobos head west to face the San Diego State Aztecs in a Mountain West Conference showdown under the Friday night lights. Neither team has had a strong season, but each will aim to build momentum in hopes of a bowl berth. San Diego State is looking to bounce back from a rough 56-24 loss to Boise State, while New Mexico comes in following a close 49-45 defeat against Wyoming. Let’s dive into the strengths and weaknesses on both sides and find out who holds the edge in this one.

Advantages for San Diego State

The Lobos’ defense has been struggling, especially on the road. Just a few weeks ago, they gave up 45 points to Utah State and 49 points to Wyoming. Consistently allowing big scores, even against lower-tier teams, indicates that New Mexico’s defense is unlikely to offer much resistance. San Diego State should find opportunities here, even though their offense has been lackluster, scoring no more than 27 points against FBS opponents this season. QB Danny O’Neil has shown flashes, but turnovers and a lack of explosive plays have held the Aztecs back. With RB Marquez Cooper in a workhorse role, they’ll aim to capitalize on New Mexico’s porous defense.

Angles for the Lobos

Despite New Mexico’s overall struggles, their offense has been productive, averaging close to 50 points in their last four games (excluding an odd 6-point game against Colorado State). QB Devon Dampier has been a dual-threat force, amassing 2,245 passing yards, 745 rushing yards, and 25 total touchdowns this season. He’s complemented by RB Evan Sanders, and together they lead a dynamic offense. While San Diego State’s defense is better than most of New Mexico’s recent opponents, the Lobos’ ability to score consistently keeps them in the mix here, even on the road. Injuries to key players like leading receiver Luke Wysong could impact their output, but Dampier’s versatile skill set gives them a fighting chance.

Key Questions for Friday

This game poses some interesting contrasts. San Diego State’s offense should have opportunities against New Mexico’s weak defense, but can they truly exploit it with an offense that’s lacked punch? Meanwhile, New Mexico’s high-scoring offense faces one of the more competent defenses in the Mountain West, but the Aztecs aren’t immune to lapses, as shown in last week’s loss to Boise State. If San Diego State’s defense can’t keep up with New Mexico’s scoring pace, will they be able to keep up in a high-scoring affair?

Take the Points

While San Diego State’s home-field advantage and defensive edge are factors, it’s hard to overlook New Mexico’s offensive firepower in a game where points could come easily. San Diego State may score more than usual against a weak Lobos defense, but covering the spread could be a challenge if New Mexico maintains even a fraction of their recent scoring success. I’m taking the Lobos and the points in this matchup.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the New Mexico Lobos +3.

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