UNLV vs Houston Betting Prediction: Rebels Upset Cougars in Week 1

UNLV Rebels (0-0 SU, ATS 0-0) vs Houston Cougars (0-0 SU, ATS 0-0)

Date: 7:00 EST Saturday, August 31st

Location: TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX

TV: FS1

Point Spread: UNLV +1.5/UH -1.5

Money Line: UNLV +102/UH -125

Over/Under: 54.5

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UNLV and Houston are set to face off in a week one non-conference matchup, with kick-off scheduled for 7:00 ET at TDECU Stadium in Houston. The game will be broadcast on FS1, and the over/under line is currently set at 54.5 points. The money line odds have Houston as the slight -1.5 point favorite at home. This is the first game of the season for both teams.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The UNLV Rebels and Houston Cougars did not meet up last season, but over their last three head-to-head matchups, each team is 0-3. Against the spread, each team also went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 0-3. These games averaged a combined 48 points per contest.

UNLV Rebels Recent Form:

UNLV is +130 to make it to the Mountain West Conference title game, with the futures market giving them a 43% chance to advance to the championship. The Rebels are coming off a season in which they were 9-5 overall, including going 5-3 at home and 4-2 on the road. As underdogs, they were 5-2 and 4-3 as the favorite. Currently, UNLV is ranked 86th in our power rankings, with a 51.7% chance of being bowl-eligible this season.

Last season, UNLV made a bowl game, and the futures odds have them as the 2nd best bet in the Mountain West to make it to the Conference title game, with the futures market giving them an 18% chance. Our power rankings give them a 6% chance to win the Mountain West this season.

UNLV’s offense was strong last season, averaging 34.4 points per game, which ranked 13th in the country. The Rebels were also effective on third down, converting 49% of their opportunities (6th nationally). Their success was driven by a balanced attack, as they ranked 15th in rushing yards per attempt and 18th in passing yards per completion.

This season, the Rebels are looking to Cameron Friel and transfer Matthew Sluka at the quarterback position. Jai’Den Thomas, who rushed for 503 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, returns to lead the backfield, and the receiving corps is led by Ricky White, who had 1481 receiving yards and eight touchdowns last year. UNLV will be looking for new contributors at the wide receiver position to keep their strong offensive performance going.

UNLV’s defense allowed 28.6 points per game last season, ranking 80th in the nation. They struggled to stop the run, giving up 164.4 rushing yards per game, which placed them 114th in college football. In the passing game, the Rebels allowed 253.7 yards per game, ranking 148th. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61.2% of their passes and had a combined passer rating of 91.1.

Away Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Houston Cougars Recent Form:

Last season, Houston was 1-2 in games where they were favored, finishing with a 4-8 overall record. They were the underdog in nine of their 12 games. The Cougars went 3-4 at home and 1-4 on the road. Entering this season, Houston is 78th in our pre-season power rankings, and they have a 22.6% chance of becoming bowl-eligible.

In the futures market, Houston is a +10785 long shot to win the Big 12, with just a 0.3% chance of winning the conference according to our power rankings. The implied odds for the Cougars to make it to the Big 12 Conference title game are 3%, with futures odds set at +3750.

Donovan Smith returns as the top quarterback for the Houston Cougars after throwing for 2,800 yards and 22 touchdowns last season. He finished with a passer rating of 90 and also contributed 429 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Houston also added Zeon Chriss from Louisiana, who threw for 1,222 yards last season.

Last season, Houston’s passing attack averaged 241.5 yards per game, ranking 65th in the country. Overall, the Cougars averaged 23.7 points per game, placing them 77th nationally. In the running game, Houston ranked 106th in the country, with Parker Jenkins as their top returning running back. Jenkins rushed for 464 yards last season. The Cougars are also looking to make an impact with the addition of transfer receiver Devan Williams, who finished with 399 receiving yards last year.

Opposing offenses found success on the ground against Houston last season, as the Cougars’ defense allowed 170.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 125th in the nation. Overall, Houston gave up 31.5 points per game, placing them 73rd in the country. Their pass defense was slightly better, but still not great, ranking 153rd in passing yards allowed per game (255.3). Quarterbacks also completed 69.5% of their passes against Houston last year.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, UNLV has an ATS record of 8-2 while averaging 27 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
• In their last three home games, Houston has averaged 12 points per game while allowing 30. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the UNLV Rebels have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-2.
• Going back to their previous three games as the favorite, Houston has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.

Free Pick

Getting UNLV at +102 is a steal in week one and one of my best bets of the week. If you’re not feeling as confident as I am, you could go ahead and take UNLV at +1.5, but I’m going all in and banking on the Rebels to win it straight-up.