UNLV vs. Hawaii College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions

UNLV Rebels (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 11

Date/Time: Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 9PM EST

Where: Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii

TV: CBS Sports Network

The UNLV Rebels battle the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in a Mountain West Conference battle on Saturday. It’s a pretty strong Mountain West pairing, as the Rebels have been really good this season, taking on a team that can be tough in a difficult locale in Hawaii. The Rebels have been given time to regroup following their 29-24 loss to Boise in an understandable but deflating setback. With some big things still within reach, they turn their attention to this difficult road spot against a Hawaii team that is showing some life in the second half of the season, entering this one on the heels of two straight wins, including a 21-20 road-win over Fresno State on Saturday. Down with time running out in the final quarter, Hawaii QB Brayden Schager connected with Nick Cenacle for the go-ahead TD. Despite a recent tough patch where the Rainbow Warriors lost five of 6, they could be a tougher test than anticipated for the Rebels.

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Tough Test for the Rebels

On one hand, the Rebels have been excellent in a near-transcendent season for a long-suffering program. Also, after a difficult run that ended with the tough but competent loss to the Broncos, maybe a break is what the doctor ordered. I’d also be a little concerned about lost momentum, something that could be exacerbated by the hardships of this road trip, combined with the fact that they happen to be catching the Rainbow Warriors at their absolute zenith this season, whatever that might be worth. In an overall sense, Hawaii hasn’t been very good at all this season, but the home/away ratio is more pronounced with them than it is with other teams, and it’s still a difficult test for a UNLV team coming off the break this week.

Again, Hawaii is not very strong. Until October 27, they had covered one spread and were winless in conference. Wins over Nevada and a so-so Fresno team do not signal a revival. Schager was big in the comeback win last week and his arm has been a big part of Hawaii’s modest success this season, but he also doesn’t always take care of the ball and they’ve exceeded 24 points of scoring just once since August 25. Their run game is negligible, as they’re often jammed up at or near the goal line, with Schager arguably their most productive runner with six touchdowns and lead back Landon Sims mostly ineffectual. But again, teams are allowed to peak late, and when it converges with a team that peaked early, strange things can happen.

UNLV Coming Down the Stretch

I still can’t help but think it might be an unnecessary gamble to predict some downturn from the Rebels with some tricky spots on their schedule, but it’s still a pretty easy road to run the table. The more difficult games are in their rearview. And in losing by five and leading going into the fourth quarter against a ranked Boise team whose only loss was by three points to top-ranked Oregon isn’t really a mark of shame for this UNLV program. They overcame their starting QB abandoning the team and have soldiered on admirably with Hajj-Malik Williams under center, even taking this UNLV offense forward another step in some respects. He’s a real dual-threat weapon, and his performances almost make you wonder what the UNLV coaching staff was thinking in starting Matthew Sluka ahead of him.

In Vegas last season, the Rebels handed the Rainbow Warriors a 44-20 beating, even with Schager going for over 300 yards on the game. I’d look for some of those same things to surface. One is a strong UNLV run game, anchored by their QB and backs like Jai’Den Thomas and Kylin James, who should be able to find some holes in this Hawaii defense. Look for Williams to connect with top receiver Ricky White, III. and his other targets. But what really got the Rebels over against Hawaii was their impactful defense, which had Schager scrambling the whole game; with it being a near-miracle, he threw just one pick on the day. The pass rush with this Rebels’ defensive front, along with ball-hawks in the back seven like Jackson Woodard and Jalen Catalon, means that the price for being off-target can be costly with this group.

Who is in a Better Spot?

A lot is made of a road game in Hawaii. It’s the big equalizer in people’s minds. And sometimes it is, with this season playing out in a way where overplaying the Hawaii location angle has actually paid off in a betting sense. But I look at a UNLV team that has been resting their bodies after a demanding run, chastened for the stretch, and given time to warm up to the task of playing in Honolulu. The Rainbow Warriors, meanwhile, have spent the last two months getting run ragged with alternating home and away games week after week where they’re in Huntsville, Texas, then back home, San Diego, back home, Pullman, back home, back out to Fresno, and now back home again in successive weeks.

Lay the Number

I have this funny feeling that low-rating the Rebels or their ability to find life after the tough loss could come at a cost. If anything, I’d expect them to have some vigor in this spot. It’s not one of those super-late Hawaii games that will throw them off in that way. I expect both sides of the ball to be in good form as the Rebels get some separation in the second half for the win and cover in Honolulu on Saturday. I’m taking UNLV.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the UNLV Rebels minus 13.5 points.

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