UNLV Rebels at Fresno State Bulldogs Point Spread, Analysis, Free Pick

UNLV Rebels (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) at Fresno State Bulldogs (6-1, 3-4), 10/28/23

When: 10:30 pm ET Saturday, Oct. 28

Where: Bulldog Stadium

TV: FS1

Betting Odds

Point Spread: UNLV +7.5/Fres St -7.5

Money Line: UNLV +235/Fres St -295

Total: 58.5

Game Overview

Defending Mountain West Conference champion Fresno State continues its pursuit of a repeat when it hosts upstart UNLV Saturday night at Bulldog Stadium.

Fresno State already owns one conference loss so far and might play its second straight game without its starting quarterback. The Rebels, meanwhile, stand with Air Force as the only MWC teams yet to taste defeat.

NCAAF Betting Odds

This week’s college football betting market opened Fresno State at -9 over UNLV, with an over/under of right around 58.5. Early betting action then dipped that line a point and a half down to -7.5.

UNLV-Fresno State Betting Preview

The Rebels, picked to finish near the bottom of the MWC before this season started, ride a five-game winning streak into Saturday night after nipping Colorado State last Saturday 25-23. UNLV trailed the Rams 13-3 at the half, rallied to lead 19-13 in the fourth quarter, later trailed 23-22 but drove 56 yards in the last 40 seconds to a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.

• The Rebels out-gained Colorado State 491-372.

UNLV opened its Mountain West slate three games ago with a 44-20 win over Hawaii, then won at Nevada 45-27.

Most “experts” pegged the Rebels for a second-division finish in the MWC this season, their first under Coach Odom. So it’s probably safe to say UNLV is playing above expectations so far.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs bounced back from taking their first loss of this season two games ago to win at Utah State two Fridays ago 37-32. Fresno State then had last week off.

The Bulldogs led the Aggies 7-0 early and 28-17 through three quarters, fell down 32-31 with four minutes left but answered immediately with a touchdown drive to retake the lead and held on from there.

• A failed 2-point conversion following its last score cost Fresno State the cover at -5.5.
• The Bulldogs, playing without starting QB Mikey Keene, racked up 461 yards of total offense. But the defense gave up 568 yards of Utah State offense. Which is a lot.

Fresno State opened its MWC slate three games ago with a 27-9 win over Nevada, then suffered a 24-19 “upset” loss at Wyoming.

The Bulldogs won the Mountain West championship last season, but with only 11 starters back this season, a regression was expected. But so far, so good.

UNLV-Fresno State Recent History

The Bulldogs own a five-game winning streak against the Rebels, going 3-2 ATS along the way. Last year, Fresno State won in Las Vegas 37-30, but a late Rebels field goal gave them the cover at +8.

College Football Betting Trends

UNLV is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as a road dog.

Totals Report

The overs are 4-3 in Rebels games this season, which are averaging 62 total points.

The overs are 5-2 in Bulldogs games, which are averaging 54 points.

The overs are 4-0 over the last four meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Betting Pick

UNLV has hit the 40-point mark four times over its last five games. The Rebels are also averaging 210 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Fresno State might be without its starting QB for the second straight game. These teams played a fun, close game last season, and we won’t be surprised if this one plays out along similar lines. So we’ll take UNLV plus the points.