Undefeated Showdown: Can BYU Cover Against Kansas State?

No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. BYU Cougars (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 21st, 2024, 10:30 PM (EST)
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium Provo, UT
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: KSU -7.5/BYU +7.5
Moneyline: KSU -225/BYU +195
Total: 47.5

Late this Saturday, college football enthusiasts will be able to catch an intriguing match-up between a pair of unbeaten teams when the no. 13 Kansas State Wildcats visit the BYU Cougars at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Last year, the Cougars struggled in their debut season in the Big 12, going 5-7 SU and just 2-7 SU in conference play. However, the Cougars have jumped out to a quick 3-0 start to the season and will return home following back to back road wins against SMU and Wyoming which has been facilitated by a strong running attack and solid play on the defensive side of the football. Despite the progression, the Cougars will be 7.5 point underdogs when they host the 13th ranked Wildcats in this Saturday’s Big 12 opener for both schools.

The visiting Wildcats are coming off an impressive 31-7 victory over no. 20 Arizona last week. Despite the final result, the battle against Arizona was much closer than the score suggests. While Kansas State QB Avery Johnson had a big afternoon throwing and running the football, the Wildcats defense was the big difference maker as they were able to force three different 4th down stops against the Arizona offense. So far this season, the Wildcats have shown the potential to make a run at the Big 12 Championship and trail Utah by just one spot as the highest-ranked team from the conference. However, Kansas State did have a shaky road trip to Tulane just two weeks ago and will need to continue to prove themselves in another tricky road trip to Provo.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars Betting Analysis

Interestingly, both of these offenses have been efficient but far from great through the first three games of the season. BYU’s offense is led by QB Jake Retzlaff, who is being asked to do a bit of everything. Retzlaff leads the team in rushing with 113 yards through three games and has been decent throwing the football by completing 60% of his throws, resulting in seven touchdowns and three picks. With that said, this BYU offense does not have a ton of playmakers, and Head Coach Kalani Sitake has been more contemptuous of keeping this simple by focusing on the running attack due to the success of the Cougar’s defense. However, I am not sure if that strategy will work this week, as BYU is going to have to come up with some big plays in order to pull off the upset.

The good news for BYU is that their defense should give them opportunities, especially if they can continue to play well against the run. The Wildcats are led by RB DJ Giddens and have a solid supporting cast of rushing threats in QB Avery Johnson and RB Dylan Edwards. Personally, I have not been that impressed with Johnson’s throwing ability, but Kansas State’s rushing attack is what often opens up opportunities down the field. With that said, I am eager to see what happens when Kansas State’s offense cannot rely solely on the run game. If BYU can get a hot start, force a few turnovers, or keep forcing 3rd and long situations, I would not rule out the opportunity at an upset. However, that is much easier said than done!

Kansas State Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars Betting Trends

• Kansas State is 2-4 ATS in the last six games.
• Kansas State has hit the “under” in four of the last six games.
• Kansas State is 6-1 SU in the last seven games.
• Kansas State is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games against Big 12 opponents.
• BYU is 5-0 ATS in the last five games.
• BYU has hit the over in four of the last six games.
• BYU is 4-1 ATS in the last five games at home.
• BYU is 0-5 SU in the last five games against Big 12 opponents.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars Betting Prediction

While there is concern and low ceilings for both offenses in this game, I don’t think BYU is as outmatched as current betting odds suggest. The Cougars are 3-0 ATS this season and honestly match up well on paper against Kansas State. Call this a lower-confidence play, but I like the points in this one!

Jay’s Pick: Take BYU +7.5