North Carolina vs. Boston College: Week 13 Point Spread Prediction

North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) at Boston College Eagles (5-5, 6-4), 11/23/24
When: noon ET Saturday, Nov. 23
Where: Alumni Stadium
TV: CWN

Point spread: NC -3/BC +3
Money line: NC -160/BC +135
Over/under: 56.5

North Carolina is already bowl-eligible while Boston College still needs one more win, heading into Saturday afternoon’s ACC bout at Chestnut Hill.

The Tar Heels are one of the streakier teams in college football this season, winning three in a row, then losing four straight, then winning three straight again. Add it up, and six wins sends them bowling.

Meanwhile the Eagles started well this season but are struggling lately against a tougher slate of opponents.

The Line

This week’s CFB betting market opened North Carolina at -2.5 over Boston College, with an O/U of right around 56. Early betting action edged the Heels to -3.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings (Sagarin.com), the line on this game should basically be a pick ’em.

North Carolina Betting Preview

The Tar Heels ride a three-game winning streak into Saturday after beating Wake Forest last Saturday 31-24. That game was tied 10-10 in the third quarter when North Carolina drove 75 yards to a go-ahead touchdown, then scored on a pick-6 a minute later and held on from there.

However, a late, basically meaningless Deacons TD cost Carolina the cover at -11.

The Heels ran the ball for 230 yards and won the turnover battle 3-1.

Two games ago, North Carolina ran for 289 yards and won at Florida State 35-11. Three games ago, the Tar Heels won 41-14 at Virginia.

North Carolina started 3-0 this season, then lost four games in a row. But the Heels had chances to win three of those games. And since then, they’ve won three straight.

At 6-4 overall, North Carolina is already bowl-eligible for the sixth straight season. But at 3-3 in conference play, the Tar Heels are out of the running in the ACC. So Carolina will play its last couple of games for better a bowl bid.

Boston College Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Eagles are 1-4 their last five times out after falling gamely at SMU last Saturday 38-28. Boston College, catching 19 points and starting a new QB, trailed 10-0 out of the gate. But BC later rallied to lead 21-20 in the third quarter and while the Eagles couldn’t hold on for the outright upset of the Mustangs they covered easily. And that’s what’s important.

Boston College was out-gained by SMU, but only 438-417.

Two games ago, the Eagles beat Syracuse 37-31 and covered at -3. Three games ago BC led Louisville 20-0, lost 31-27 but covered at +7.

So the Eagles are 3-0 ATS their last three times out.

Boston College started 4-1 this season, with a win at Missouri. But the schedule got a little tougher, and the Eagles lost four of their last five games.

At 5-5 overall, Boston College needs one win over its last two games – they finish their season next week at home against Pitt – to become bowl-eligible.

These teams last met four seasons ago, a 26-22 Carolina victory also at Chestnut Hill.

Common Opponents

These teams have played two common opponents so far this season, Florida State and Virginia. North Carolina played those foes to 2-0 both SU and ATS and +220 YPG, Boston College to 1-1 both SU and ATS and +28 YPG.

Totals Report

The Unders are 7-3 in Heels games this season, which are averaging 60 total points.

The totals are 5-5 in Eagles games, which are averaging 52 points.

Free College Football Pick

As North Carolina RB Hampton shoots for his 9th straight 100-yard rushing effort, we expect the Tar Heels to win the ground battle in this game. Also, Carolina is playing the better ball down the stretch. Also, the Heels own the better performance (albeit a limited sample) vs. common opponents. Finally, Boston College is coming off a tough, draining effort last week, both physically and emotionally. We wonder if the Eagles might be ripe for letdown. We’re giving the points with North Carolina.

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