UCF vs Florida Betting Analysis & Point Spread Prediction

UCF Knights (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 6

Date/Time: Saturday, October 5th, 2024, 7:45 PM (EST)

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL

TV: SEC Network

Betting Odds

Point Spread: UCF -2.5 / UF +2.5

Moneyline: UCF -130 / UF +115

Total: 61.5

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The Florida Gators return to action this Saturday when they host the UCF Knights at “The Swamp,” looking to build on their recent 45-28 victory over Mississippi State. In that game, QB Graham Mertz delivered an impressive performance, completing 19 of 21 passes for 201 yards and four total touchdowns. With an extra week to prepare, the Gators aim to continue their momentum in this challenging home matchup against the Knights.

The UCF Knights, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season, a 48-21 defeat to the Colorado Buffaloes. Despite the setback, UCF enters this game with a 3-1 SU (3-1 ATS) record and will make just their second road trip of the season, hoping to make a statement against the Gators. This matchup marks only the fourth meeting in history between these two programs, with the Knights favored for the first time.

UCF Knights vs. Florida Gators Betting Analysis

Despite their win against Mississippi State, the Gators still face many questions on offense. The running game has been inconsistent, and the quarterback situation remains unsettled, with starter Graham Mertz and dual-threat QB DJ Lagway both seeing action. Injuries to Florida’s receiving corps and secondary could further complicate matters, especially against a UCF team that excels at stopping the run, allowing just 80 yards per game on the ground.

On the other side, UCF’s offense seems to have a more defined identity. Running back RJ Harvey has been a force, racking up 525 yards and eight touchdowns on 7.0 yards per carry through the first four games. QB KJ Jefferson adds another dimension to the Knights’ rushing attack, making it difficult for defenses to contain. Considering that Florida has struggled against the run, allowing an average of 188 yards per game, the Knights appear to have a clear path to success by controlling the pace of the game and wearing down the Gators’ defense.

UCF Knights vs. Florida Gators Betting Trends

• UCF is 6-3 SU in the last nine games.
• UCF has hit the “over” in four of the last five games.
• UCF has hit the “over” in nine of the last 13 road games.
• UCF has hit the “under” in nine of the last 11 games against SEC opponents.
• Florida is 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• Florida has hit the “over” in ten of the last 12 games.
• Florida is 0-5 ATS in the last five home games.
• Florida is 2-7 SU in the last nine games.

UCF Knights vs. Florida Gators Betting Prediction

The Knights appear to have an advantage in the trenches, and their dynamic rushing attack could prove too much for Florida’s struggling run defense. While Florida has paths to victory through the air, UCF’s ability to control the game on the ground should be the deciding factor. Expect the Knights to secure their second straight win over the Gators, covering the 2.5-point spread.

Jay’s Pick: Take UCF -2.5