UCF at West Virginia: Big 12 Betting Picks and Predictions

UCF Knights (4-6 SU, ATS 4-5)  vs West Virginia Mountaineers (5-5 SU, ATS 4-5)
Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, November 23rd
Location: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
TV: ESNU
Point Spread: UCF -3/WVU +3
Money Line: UCF -148/WVU  +125
Over/Under: 64.5

UCF is the -3 point favorite on the road as they head into this week 13 matchup vs. West Virginia. Kick-off is set for 3:30 ET from Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, with ESNU handling the broadcast. The money line odds are -148 for UCF and +125 for West Virginia, and the over/under line is at 64.5 points. UCF has a 4-6 record, while West Virginia is 5-5 on the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The UCF Knights and West Virginia Mountaineers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the UCF Knights have a record of 2-1. The UCF Knights also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 69 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 3-0.

UCF Knights Recent Form:

UCF heads into Week 13 with a 4-6 record, facing West Virginia on the road. They rank 36th in our CFB power rankings, with a 39.9% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Knights are 1-3 on the road and 2-3 at home this season.

UCF has been favored in five of their ten games, going 2-3 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +6.6 points per game, and they are 4-5 against the spread this season.

The over/under line for this week is 64.5 points, the highest they’ve faced this season. UCF’s over/under record is 7-2, with their games averaging 59.4 points and an average line of 56.8 points.

UCF’s offense is ranked 32nd in our power rankings heading into week 13, and they are 27th in points per game, scoring 33 per contest. Their strength is their running game, as they are 3rd in the nation with 262.8 rushing yards per game, averaging 43.8 attempts per game.

RJ Harvey leads the rushing attack with 1,328 yards and 19 touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry. KJ Jefferson has thrown for 1,012 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He has a passer rating of 96.

UCF’s defense has allowed 26.4 points per game this season, including 35 points in their recent 35-31 loss to Arizona State. They gave up 275 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air while holding Arizona State to 124 rushing yards.

Opponents have averaged 239.5 passing yards per game against UCF, ranking them 118th nationally. Quarterbacks have completed 66.6% of their passes against the Knights. On the ground, UCF’s defense has allowed just 117.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 38th in the country.

Away Injury Report

West Virginia Mountaineers Recent Form:

West Virginia enters Week 13 with a 5-5 record, hosting UCF. They’ve been strong on the road at 3-1 but have struggled at home, going 1-4. The Mountaineers have been favored in just two games this season and are ranked 54th in our power rankings. They have a 65.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible.

Their ATS record stands at 4-5, with a 3-1 mark on the road and 1-4 at home. West Virginia’s average scoring margin is -0.4 points per game, and they’ve gone 1-1 against the spread as favorites and 3-4 as underdogs.

This week’s over/under line is 64.5 points, higher than any other game this season. West Virginia’s games have averaged 59.6 points, with an average over/under line of 56.2 points. Their over/under record is 6-3, with games averaging +3.0 points above the line.

West Virginia’s offense has leaned heavily on the run game, averaging 200.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 27th nationally. They are 20th in rushing attempts, with 39.5 per game. Jahiem White leads the team with 639 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored five touchdowns. The Mountaineers are 43rd in scoring, with 29.6 points per game, and are 34th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13.

Quarterback Garrett Greene has thrown for 1,589 yards, with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 77. West Virginia ranks 89th in passing yards per game. Hudson Clement leads the receivers with 454 yards and three touchdowns. The team is converting 40.2% of their third-down attempts.

West Virginia’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 30 points per game, including 49 points in their recent loss to Baylor. They gave up 516 total yards, with 329 yards through the air and 187 rushing yards, while forcing no turnovers.

Opponents have averaged 269.6 passing yards per game against West Virginia, completing 64.2% of their passes. On the ground, the Mountaineers have allowed 134.4 rushing yards per game on 33.6 attempts per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, UCF has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 26 points per game.
• Across the West Virginia Mountaineers’ last ten home games, the team averaged 30 points per game while allowing 32. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 5-5 while going 6-4 straight-up.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, West Virginia has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 5-5 straight up.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the UCF Knights have a straight up record of 5-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-7.

Free Pick

Rightfully so, this game features a high over/under line of 64.5 points, as both offenses have been good this year. However, I really like UCF’s matchup vs a bad WVU defense. I think there is a ton of value in UCF’s line of -3. For this matchup, I’m going with the Knights to win this one and cover the spread.

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