Tulane at Navy Betting Analysis & Free Pick | November 16, 2024

Tulane Green Wave (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS) at Navy Midshipmen (7-2, 6-3), 11/16/24

When: noon ET Saturday, Nov. 16

Where: Memorial Stadium Annapolis

TV: ESPN 2

Point Spread: Tul -7/Nav +7 (Bet it FREE with one of our sportsbook bonuses!)

Money Line: Green Wave -270/Midshipmen +220

Over/Under: 54.5

In a game that will go a long way toward deciding a spot in the upcoming American Athletic Conference championship bout, 8-2 Tulane battles 7-2 Navy Saturday afternoon in Annapolis.

The Green Wave, 6-0 in conference play, are chasing a third straight AAC championship game appearance. But the Midshipmen, 5-1 in the American, are still alive, too.

And the eventual champion of the AAC retains a (slim) chance of making this season’s College Football Playoff.

The Line

The CFB Week 12 betting market opened Tulane at -6.5 for Saturday, with an O/U of right around 54. Early betting action edged the Wave to -7.

According to Sagarin’s ratings (Sagarin.com) the opening line on this game was right on the money.

Tulane Betting Preview

The Green Wave surfs a seven-game winning streak into Saturday after trouncing Temple last Saturday 52-6. Tulane, favored at -26, led 28-0 at the half, then piled on from there, on its way to the W and the cash.

The Wave out-gained the Owls 589-159, and half the yardage the Tulane defense allowed came on one play. Tulane also ran the ball for 327 yards last week, the third time over its last five games it rushed for at least 297 yards. Which is a lot.

Two games ago, the Green Wave broke loose in the second half to beat Charlotte 34-3, covering at -15. Three weeks ago they took a big early lead at North Texas, won 45-37 and covered at -7.

At 6-0 in AAC play, Tulane sits in second place, a half-game behind first-place Army (7-0), with just two games to play. So, a win Saturday over third-place Navy clinches a spot in the conference championship game for the Wave. And with a little help from a result or two out in the Mountain West Conference, the AAC champion could make this season’s expanded CFP.

Navy Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Midshipmen just halted a two-game losing skid with a 28-7 victory at South Florida last Saturday. Navy, favored at -4.5, scored touchdowns the first two times it touched the ball, led 21-0 at the half and eased home from there.

The Middies out-rushed the Bulls 321-60, the third time over their last seven games they ran the ball for at least 300 yards.

The Midshipmen started 6-0 this season, with a crazy upset of Memphis, racking up some nice offensive numbers along the way. Navy then lost to Notre Dame 51-14, which wasn’t a crime, but it then fell at Rice 24-10, which almost was.

At 5-1 in conference play, the Middies trail Tulane by one game in the battle for second place in the AAC. If they can make up that game on the Green Wave this week and win at East Carolina next week Navy will play in the AAC championship game.

These programs last met four seasons ago when the Midshipmen rallied from a 24-0 halftime deficit to win at New Orleans 27-24.

By the Numbers

Tulane is averaging 442 YPG on offense this season, 228 rushing. Defensively the Green Wave are holding opponents to 309 YPG, 115 rushing. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 91st-toughest schedule in college football.

Navy is averaging 396 YPG, 259 on the ground, while allowing 386 YPG, 156 on the ground. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 109 schedule.

Common Opponents

These teams have played five common opponents this season: Charlotte, Temple, South Florida, Rice, and UAB. Tulane played those foes to 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS and +231 YPG, Navy to 4-1 SU and ATS but only +9 YPG.

Totals Report

Overs are 6-4 in Wave games this season, which are averaging 60 total points.

Overs are 7-2 in Middies games, which are averaging 58 points.

Free College Football Pick

Tulane is the better team in this match-up and should win this game outright. The Green Wave are very nicely balanced on offense and they own the better defense. They also own the better performance vs. common opponents. And playing on the road keeps the spread a little friendlier. Meanwhile, Navy started nicely this season but we get the feeling they were playing a bit over their heads. We like Tulane, minus the points.

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