Troy vs Nevada Betting Picks: Can the Wolf Pack Cover the Spread?

Nevada Wolf Pack (0-1 SU, ATS 1-0) vs Troy Trojans (0-0 SU, ATS 0-0)

Date: 7:00 EST Saturday, August 31st

Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL), Troy, AL

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: UNR +9.5/TU -9.5 (Why bet on games at -110 when you could be laying -105 at BAS?)

Money Line: UNR +249/TU -326

Over/Under: 44.5

The Troy Trojans are the heavy -9.5 point favorites as they host the Nevada Wolf Pack in a week one non-conference matchup at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy. Kick-off is set for 7:00 ET, and the game can be seen on ESPN+. The over/under line is currently at 44.5 points. Troy is looking for their first win of the season, while Nevada comes in with a 0-1 record.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Nevada Wolf Pack and Troy Trojans did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Nevada Wolf Pack have a record of 2-1. The Nevada Wolf Pack also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 47 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Nevada Wolf Pack Recent Form:

Nevada is looking to bounce back after their season opener, where they lost 29-24 to SMU. Despite being +28 point underdogs, the Wolf Pack covered the spread, and the game’s total score of 53 points was under the 55.5-point over/under line.

Nevada led 7-0 after the first quarter, but SMU tied it up by halftime. The Wolf Pack managed to outscore SMU 7-3 in the third quarter, but they were shut out in the fourth quarter, allowing SMU to pull away and hand them the loss.

In their 29-24 loss to SMU, Nevada’s offense put up 298 yards, with 148 yards coming on the ground. Brendon Lewis, who threw for 132 yards, completed 53.8% of his passes and ended the game with a passer rating of 93.75. He connected with Cortez Braham Jr. four times for 66 yards, including one of the team’s two passing touchdowns.

On the ground, Lewis was also the team’s leading rusher, picking up 77 yards on 18 carries. Nevada’s offense managed to convert 16 first downs but fell just short on the scoreboard.

Nevada’s defense will be looking to improve after giving up 442 total yards in their last game. SMU found success through the air, throwing for 308 yards and a touchdown on 21 completions. The Wolf Pack’s secondary did come up with one interception, but they’ll need to tighten up against the pass. On the ground, Nevada allowed 134 yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Away Injury Report

Troy Trojans Recent Form:

Last season, Troy was 9-3 when favored and 2-0 as the underdog, finishing with an 11-3 overall record. The Trojans were strong at home, going 6-1, and they were also good on the road, ending with a 5-2 record. As we head into the new season, Troy is ranked 75th in our pre-season power rankings and carries a 79.9% chance of being bowl-eligible.

Our projections give Troy a 13.3% chance of winning the Sun Belt Conference, while the current futures odds have them at +1560 to win the title, suggesting a 6% chance, which is the lowest among all teams in the conference.

Goose Crowder is the top returning quarterback for the Troy Trojans, despite finishing last season with just 94 passing yards and one touchdown. Troy’s offense was still effective last season, averaging 29.6 points per game, which ranked 28th in the country. They were also 18th in passing yards per game (265.2) and 16th in passing yards per attempt (8.2). The Trojans threw the ball 32.5 times per game, the 22nd highest figure in college football.

In the running game, Damien Taylor returns after rushing for 346 yards last season. Troy also added Gerald Green from East Carolina. Last season, the Trojans averaged 154.4 rushing yards per game, which placed them 56th nationally.

Opposing quarterbacks had a tough time against the Troy Trojans last season, as they held them to a passer rating of just 79.2, which ranked 38th in the country. Overall, Troy’s defense allowed just 17.1 points per game, placing them 12th in the nation. They were also strong against the run, giving up only 107.1 rushing yards per game, which was the 21st best figure in college football.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Nevada has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 16 points per game.
• The Troy Trojans are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Nevada has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 1-4 straight up.
• Troy has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.

Free Pick

Troy’s offense should be able to have a field day against a Nevada defense that really struggled last week. However, despite their porous defense, Nevada was able to keep things closer than expected last week and only lost by five vs. SMU. Coming in as +9.5 point underdogs, I like Nevada to hang around yet again this week, and like them to cover the spread vs Troy.