Trojans vs. Terrapins Total Pick

Blow taps.
Play Mozart’s Requiem.
Dig the hole six foot deep.
Why?
Because the NP Under play is dead.

18-7, 72% this season after last week’s win with App St/La Laf. (You can see it, in purple ink here.)

135-82, 62% over five years.

Nothing qualifies again this week.
I’ve only had one pick in the last three weeks from a system that normally averages anywhere from six to eight per week.
My best performer.
My best money maker.
Gone.
The methodology no longer works.

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“And then . . . depression set in.” (Stripes quote there, though not the most popular quote, which is, of course, “Lighten up, Francis.”)

Oh well, no use crying over spilled milk (unless you don’t have any more milk and were planning on a bowl of Raisin Bran or the Captain, original of course, none of that Crunch Berry or peanut butter crap.)

I’m going to forget about the NP play.
The past belongs in the past.
It’s time to shake it off and get back to work (and if any of you thought “Taylor Swift” after reading the words “Shake it Off” and are singing it to yourself – get out of my article. I mean it. Leave. Right now.)

For those who remain . . .
Looking at my charts I see two other plays that are profitable for totals.

T1 is 5-8 Over, for a possible 61% Fade, Under is 9-4, a 69% play ON.

H/C (looking for a trend reversal) is 6-3 Over, 67%, 4-7 Under, a 63% Fade.

Decent percentages but not much data tracked. Certainly not FIVE years worth like NP. (Okay, clearly, it’s going to take some time to get over the loss of my favorite system.)

A deeper dive into this week’s play:
Please check the forum for a picture of my notebook page referenced in this article, you’ll see U 4-7 next to the letters H/C in sky blue ink.
HC stands for Hot/Cold. It’s based on my estimation of a reversal coming into play on an established trend relevant to both teams.
In this case, USC and Maryland both have certain trends that point to the Over. So, for a trend reversal the play calls for taking the Under.

Next to H/C you see the record for the play, Under, at 4-7, a 63% Fade. And as I always say, anything higher than 58% is good enough for me.

Sealing the deal for me is a subset I have.
I won’t bother you with the technical details and math but it’s 4-2, saying this game goes Over.

The number for this one is 56′.
Let’s look at some team stats.

USC games average 49 points.
Terps games average 54.
Both are short of the total of the books hung on this one.

USC is 3-3 to the Ov, Maryland 5-1.

Both sit near the bottom of the Big Ten conference for points allowed, so I’ve got that in my favor.
Unfortunately, Maryland also sits near the bottom for points scored, so it looks like I’m going to need USC to do the dirty work and get most of the points I need in this game.

The Trojans have lost three of their last four, two in a row. And the OT loss to the Nittany Lions in their last game, at home, will hopefully have them mad as a hornet and ready to take it out on Maryland.
In the Penn State game they had a 20-6 lead at halftime but only scored 10 points in the second half. They ended up losing 33-30.
I like that loss as a lead-in to this game. With the loss fresh on his mind, I think Lincoln Riley’s going to keep the pedal to the metal and not take his foot off the gas when he gets the lead in this one.

Trojan QB Miller Moss threw for 220 yards vs a pretty tough Penn State D that usually allows an average of 167. He’ll find the going much easier this week facing a Maryland defense that surrenders 258 passing yards per game.

Maryland’s offense is a concern. They average 29 PPG but in their last two games they only averaged 19 (though one of those was against the surprising Indiana Hoosiers who are surrendering just 14 points per game.) Being at home and against a lesser defense, the Turtles should be able to break 20. This will leave me, as I said, needing USC to surpass their average PPG of 31 by a TD or more. And after the OT loss last week when they turned into slackers in the second half, I think this is a really good spot for Riley to run up the score against a very accommodating Maryland defense that’s giving up 366 yards per game, including 258 in the air.

When to Buy Recommendation:The total opened at 56 and is sitting at 56′ right now. That number looks high to me, but I have no feel for which way it’s going to move, if It moves at all. Checking over a dozen different books I see one 57 showing up and a couple of 56′ juiced to the over, so I’m buying this one now.
Saturday’s play:
USC/Maryland Ov 56′

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