Toledo Rockets vs. Akron Zips Betting Preview and Pick

Toledo Rockets (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Akron Zips (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 14
Date/Time: Tuesday, November 26, 2024 at 7PM EST
Where: InfoCision Stadium, Akron, Ohio
TV: ESPN2

The Toledo Rockets come into InfoCision Stadium for an in-state Ohio showdown with the Akron Zips in a MAC battle on Tuesday. Toledo enters this is a more-advantageous spot at 7-4, looking to boost their bowl-appeal with their 8th win, while the Zips are closing out what has been a tough season, entering their 2024 curtain-call at just 3-8. Say what you will about head coach Joe Moorhead’s Zips, but it’s actually the best season they’ve had since 2018. They enter this spot coming off a win, having beaten Kent State, 38-17, last week. Toledo, meanwhile, really fell flat last week in a 24-7 loss to Ohio, now having to take to the road and cover a number. What is the right move in this Tuesday MAC special?

Hazards for the Rockets

It’s fair to say the Toledo defense hasn’t been aging like fine wine this season, with some ragged performances in the second half of the season. For all the issues the Zips have, and they are numerous, they have a decent-enough offensive core, led by QB Ben Finley. He’s far from great, not terribly accurate, while also turning the ball over and not that great at avoiding a pass-rush. But in between all of that, he can get this offense to move the ball, relying on a nice core of pass-catchers with Adrian Norton, Bobby Golden, and TE Jake Newell. RB Jordan Simmons adds some balance, but they aren’t that adept at running the ball. They have only scored 30 or more points three times and struggle more often than not, but it’s still food for thought with prospective Toledo backers this week with a robust number to cover against a team that can find offensive success from time to time. And when the Zips are at home, there’s at least a slightly better chance that good things can happen for them.

It’s just that Zips have almost imperceptibly gotten better over the course of the season. In the last month, they were able to register a nice win over Eastern Michigan while also not getting bowled over in tougher matchups against Buffalo and NIU, leading up to their win over winless Kent State. In fact, since emerging from a tough early schedule where they were in multiple no-hope situations, they’ve been tough in the MAC despite some bad results from a strictly won-loss standpoint. But with only two double-digit losses in the MAC, it shows they’ve been capable. We see one team in Toledo and another in Akron, and we see a pretty good team against a bad one. But with both teams at 5-6 against the spread, they’ve been delivering at the betting windows at the same rate. And with this spread and the Zips being at home, it isn’t altogether easy picking a side in this one.

Can Toledo Close Strong?

Last week notwithstanding, when they lost to a surging 8-3 Ohio Bobcats squad, we had seen some positive signs from the Rockets, having outscored their three previous opponents 123-26. So, maybe it was deflating for some that a surging Rockets’ squad couldn’t manage more than a TD of scoring at home, albeit in a difficult spot against one of the conference’s frontrunners. But even though the Rockets came down to earth some this season after some recent successful seasons, they can still get to 8 wins and book a decent bowl-spot, so I’d be looking for them to be aiming to atone for last week and to not close out the season in poor fashion.

I think some things set up decently for a Toledo offensive bounce-back this week. Again, the Akron defense has been deceptively competent in spots, at least able to prevent offensive free-for-alls. But they are also perhaps the most unimpactful defense in the conference and outside of being vaguely-stout on occasion, do little to chip in to the overall team cause in the form of big plays or turnovers. They’ve picked off opposing passers just three times this whole season.

It was concerning to see starting Toledo QB Tucker Gleason leave the game last week, as he is listed as questionable for this. John Alan Richter appeared a little lost out there in relief, though he was already up against it in terms of game script and opponent. If I were entertaining a position on Toledo this week, I’d probably want to know if Gleason is a go for this one. Their main weapons in this offense are pass-catchers Jerjuan Newton, Junior Vanderross, III., and tight end Anthony Torres. They don’t have much that they can rely on with the run-game, so you’d like to see Gleason in there making good use of the team’s best weapons.

Take the Points

I suppose Gleason could be in there, in which case the Toledo offense has a chance to create some separation with this team. But I can’t help but think that sneaky resilience on the part of the Zips will come in handy here. I think they’ve gotten better over the course of the season. Not that they’re good, but being at home against an incoming Toledo team that is dealing with issues and coming off a 7-point showing sets up decently for the Zips to hang in there a little bit. I anticipate the Zips keeping this moderately-close en route to a cover at home on Tuesday. I’ll take Akron.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Akron Zips plus 8 points.

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