CFB Picks: Toledo Rockets vs Buffalo Bulls Prediction

Toledo Rockets (4-1 SU, ATS 2-2)  vs Buffalo Bulls (3-2 SU, ATS 1-2)

Date: 12:00 EST Saturday, October 12th

Location: UB Stadium, Buffalo, NY

TV: ESNU

Point Spread: Tol -9.5/Buf +9.5

Money Line: U of T -353/UB  +275

Over/Under: 44

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Coming into this week seven matchup, the Toledo Rockets are 4-1 on the season, and they are the -9.5 point favorites over the Buffalo Bulls. The game is set for 12:00 ET at UB Stadium in Buffalo, with ESNU handling the television broadcast. The money line odds have Toledo at -353 and Buffalo at +275, and the over/under line is currently at 44 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Toledo Rockets and Buffalo Bulls did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Toledo Rockets have a record of 2-1. The Toledo Rockets also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 50 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-1-1.

Toledo Rockets Recent Form:

Toledo enters Week 7 against Buffalo with a 4-1 record, ranked 75th in our power rankings. They have a 99.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and a 36.5% chance of winning the Mid-American title. The Rockets are 2-0 at home and 1-1 on the road this season.

Toledo’s average scoring margin is +16.6 points, and their ATS record is 2-2. They are 1-2 against the spread as favorites and 1-0 as underdogs.

Their over/under record is 3-1, with an average line of 53.4 points. Toledo games average 55 points and this week’s line is set at 44 points.

Toledo’s offense is averaging 35.8 points per game heading into week 7, ranking 23rd in the nation. Quarterback Tucker Gleason has thrown for 1,180 yards and 13 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 106. Overall, Toledo ranks 26th in passer rating and 33rd in third-down conversions, converting 45.6% of their attempts.

Gleason has completed 63% of his passes, and Toledo is averaging 251.4 passing yards per game. We have them ranked 66th in our offensive power rankings. Jerjuan Newton leads the receiving corps with 358 yards and five touchdowns. On the ground, the Rockets are averaging 126.6 rushing yards per game.

Toledo’s defense has been strong against the run, allowing just 88 rushing yards per game, ranking 13th nationally. In their recent game, they held Miami (OH) to 54 rushing yards on 23 attempts. However, Toledo’s pass defense has struggled, giving up 296 passing yards and two touchdowns in that game. This season, they’ve allowed 255.4 passing yards per game, ranking 133rd in the country.

Despite the issues in pass coverage, Toledo’s defense ranks 25th nationally, giving up just 19.2 points per game. Against Miami (OH), they allowed 20 points but also forced an interception. Quarterbacks have completed 62.4% of their passes against Toledo, with a passer rating of 81.1.

Away Injury Report

Buffalo Bulls Recent Form:

Buffalo enters Week 7 with a 3-2 record, hosting Toledo. They are 1-0 at home but 0-2 on the road. Our projections give them an 81.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Bulls are ranked 118th in our power rankings.

Buffalo’s average scoring margin is -6.2 points per game, and they are 1-2 against the spread this season. They’ve covered in their only game as the favorite (1-0) but are 0-2 ATS as the underdog.

The Bulls’ over/under record stands at 1-2, with their games averaging 42.2 points. Their average over/under line is 46.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 44 points.

Buffalo’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 18 points per game, which ranks 88th nationally. Heading into week 7, they are 128th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game has been particularly weak, with only 133 yards per game, placing them 124th in the country. They have completed 50.4% of their passes and converted just 22.4% of their third-down attempts.

C.J. Ogbonna leads the team with 624 passing yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, giving him a passer rating of 77. On the ground, Buffalo is averaging 121.4 rushing yards per game. Jacqez Barksdale leads the rushing attack with 203 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry. Victor Snow has 189 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Buffalo’s defense struggled in their recent game against UConn, allowing 47 points in a 47-3 loss. Despite giving up 371 total yards, they limited UConn to 99 rushing yards on 41 attempts but allowed 272 passing yards. Buffalo’s defense did manage to force two interceptions in the game.

So far this season, Buffalo ranks 42nd nationally, giving up 24.2 points per game. They are allowing 160 rushing yards per game (105th) and 207.6 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have a 75.1 passer rating against Buffalo, completing 61.8% of their passes.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Toledo has a 1-2 record in their last three road games. In this stretch, they averaged 25 points per game while allowing 19. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• Across their five previous home games, Buffalo has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 9 points per game.
• The last five games that Buffalo was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Toledo Rockets have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.

Free Pick

This is one game on the schedule where I feel the oddsmakers aren’t factoring enough of a home-field advantage. With the spread sitting at -9.5 in favor of Toledo, I see Buffalo as a steal here. Look for Buffalo’s defense to put up enough of a fight to keep this one close. My pick is Buffalo +9.5.

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