Thursday Night College Football Picks: Can Temple Upset Army?

Army Black Knights (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Temple Owls (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 5
Date/Time:Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 7:30PM EDT
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
TV: ESPN

The Army Black Knights make the trip to Philly to battle the Temple Owls in an American Athletic Conference battle on Thursday. Each team has played once within conference with Army winning their first game and Temple losing theirs. Despite currently being in the same conference, these teams haven’t played since 2017, with Army just joining this season. Army kept their good start to the season rolling on Saturday with a 37-14 win over the Rice Owls. Strangely, they get the Owls in back-to-back weeks, as they now visit Temple, who scored a nice 45-29 win over Utah State on Friday for their first victory of the season. Who should we get behind in this AAC Friday night special from Lincoln Financial Field?

Making a Case for Temple

Last week’s win over Utah State steadied the ship somewhat for Temple after an 0-3 start. Stan Drayton hasn’t seen things go so swimmingly since taking over, this being his third season with a cumulative mark of 7-21. Their first three games did little to change the general perception. But maybe it wasn’t quite as bad as it looks on the surface. They were out of their element in a game one wipeout-loss to Oklahoma. It didn’t get much better in a loss to a pretty good Navy team in their conference opener. But as big underdogs to Coastal Carolina, they kept it a one-score game before beating Utah State by 16 as nearly touchdown underdogs. Sleeping on Temple hasn’t gotten anyone anywhere these last few weeks. Will we continue to see that same kind of scrappiness?

We saw some different wrinkles from the Owls on Friday at home, now nice and dug in on their stomping grounds, this being their third game in a row at home. That could count for something in this game. After three years with Rutgers, Evan Simon has taken over behind center for the Owls, at least for the time being, and on Friday, we saw him slinging the ball all over the field—to the tune of 5 TD passes, while also running another one in. If this offense starts to figure things out, teams like the Army could be in a little trouble. This offense has shown its teeth some since Simon took over for Forrest Brock. We also saw kicker Maddox Trujillo knock down a 64-yard field goal on Friday, the longest made in the FBS since 2008. So, they have that going for them too.

Massive Issues for the Owls on Thursday

Army is facing a short week and a road-trip, so there could be some trickiness that comes with that. It’s still hard to not like the matchup of this Army rushing attack with do-everything quarterback Bryson Daily going against this Temple defense. So far, we’ve seen opposing rushing attacks more or less having their way with this Temple run-stop. And that especially applies to their games against Oklahoma and Navy where a real effort was made to establish a big run-game. That’s certainly something Army will be looking to do on Thursday. And between the legs of Daily, Noah Short and Kanye Udoh, along with a slew of other contributors, that looks to be a problem.

Army has only allowed 28 total points through three games, as their smooth-running rushing attack keeps them controlling the game, while keeping the opposing offense off the field and preventing them from getting any momentum. Then again, one could look at their matchups against Lehigh, Florida Atlantic, and Rice and perhaps determine that they’ve had it a bit easy. Their defense looks to have a more-talented offense on their hands this week. And while Daily can make big plays here and there with his arm, 186 yards passing through three games illustrates the one-dimensionality of their approach, something that could cost them at more-elevated levels. Whether the Temple Owls represent that higher level is up for debate.

Points to Consider

A game could unfold where Army just controls the line of scrimmage on offense and runs the ball down the Owls’ throats. You look at an Owls program that has been struggling for a few years and began this season at a very similar win rate as the preceding two straight 3-9 seasons. But these teams have been operating in different realms entirely. Army is being eased into the season and while the FAU win was considered pretty decent at the time it happened, they’ve faced a trio of foes where they should look pretty good. Temple, meanwhile, has been the underdog in every game they have played so far, and the only time they haven’t been double-digit dogs is when they have won. And not that losing makes the team better necessarily, but Temple is by far the more battle-tested team entering this contest. And sure, being 1-3 and not 3-0 brings with it a different headspace; the gap between these teams might not be as vast as their respective results suggest.

Take the Home Dogs

There have been a lot of years in recent memory where Army is among the best rushing offenses in the country, but they’re not always that good overall. Jeff Monken, in his tenth season, has upgraded this program significantly, but they’ve been 6-6 the last two seasons. And as they get deeper into conference play, we’ll see if the shortcomings that didn’t reveal themselves the first three games show up in this spot. And maybe their run-game and a defense that has been made to look better than it is gets a bit of a reality sandwich this week on the road. I’m going with Temple.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Temple Owls plus 13.5 points.