Thursday CFB: Murray State Racers vs. Louisville Cardinals Spread Bet

Murray State Racers (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Louisville Cardinals (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

College Football Week 2

Date and Time: Thursday, September 7, 2023 at 7:30PM EDT

Where: Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky

TV: ACC Network

Point Spread: MURR +41.5/LOU -41.5 (Grab a huge bonus with a promo code!)

Over/Under Total: 54.5

The Murray State Racers head to Cardinal Stadium for a Thursday night matchup with the Louisville Cardinals. The Cardinals took care of business in their first game, not covering the spread, but winning against Georgia Tech, 39-34. QB Jack Plummer threw for three touchdowns, Jawhar Johnson ran for a score, and Jamari Thrash caught a pair of touchdowns. They now turn their attention to what on paper will look like a cinch at home against Murray State. For their part, the Racers started well with a 41-10 hammering of Presbyterian, but things get a little harder here for the road-bound Racers of the FCS. Can they keep this one respectful or will the Cardinals romp?

Murray State: A Difficult Bunch to Assess

After decades in the Ohio Valley Conference, Murray State moved to the Missouri Valley Football Conference last season and were 2-9. It was Dean Hood’s worst season since coming to Murray St. in 2020. They’re a team that’s more known for basketball. Contextually, they’re a difficult team to gauge with such little recent context. What little we do have is not flattering to them, namely a 63-10 loss to Texas Tech last season to go along with a 42-7 loss to Cincinnati in 2021. It’s not a far road-trip, with Louisville a three-hour ride, but suffice to say they’re not built to thrive in these spots.

For their part, the Racers looked competent enough in week one, albeit in a far-reduced context in front of 7000 fans in Murray. Their reserved passing game was efficient under DJ Williams. They use a lot of backs, most of whom got off last week against Presbyterian. They held their opponents to under 200 yards of total offense. They’re hoping that a Louisville defense that isn’t highly-respected and already showed some holes against Georgia Tech can give them some opportunities to make an impression.

What to Expect from Louisville This Week

Typically in these spots, the Cardinals do well, but not so well that they’re a slam-dunk against what appear to be outmanned FCS opponents such as these. In their most recent such matchups, they hammered Eastern Kentucky twice, 42-0 and 30-3. How much that matters now is debatable, but we’ve already seen Jeff Brohm’s handiwork pay off with a win in his first game and an offense that looked alive. Plummer showed a lively arm and some good feet with a few nice runs. The receivers were playing well and the O-line kept Plummer’s pocket clean. Brohm worked with Plummer before at Purdue and it’s clear they have a good chemistry.

Again, the sticking point with Louisville will be their defense. Most of the talent left from a defense that was pretty good in 2022 and it’s simply not Brohm’s area of expertise. This side of the ball looked to short-circuit week one’s plans, allowing four Georgia Tech touchdowns in the second quarter alone. But Louisville toughened up and allowed just 6 points for the duration of the game, as the Cardinals staged a nice little comeback win in Atlanta. They played a lot harder in the second half, capping it with a huge play by Desmond Tell, as he blindsided the Yellow Jackets QB as they attempted a late rally for a big turnover. With new leadership, that nice rally we saw last week could give this team some energy and I’d anticipate an energetic home-opener for the Cardinals. The Racers might not be able to bank on any apathy they may have received if this were a more run-of-the-mill game. But a home-opener following a galvanizing win might not create the ideal conditions for them to sneak in there under the spread.

Stepping into the Unknown

What solid information do we truly have? Game one for Louisville revealed an offense with some upside and a defense that might be up-and-down. We already knew that and game one did nothing to throw that into a different light. And while a mid-pack finish is anticipated, we really don’t know what direction this season will take the Cardinals. With Murray State, their week one win over Presbyterian means little with their opponent having not even been able to win a Pioneer Conference game since 2020. A two-win FCS team from last season facing even a slightly above-average ACC team just screams blowout. You’d think Brohm would use this as a confidence-builder for Plummer and the rest of this offense with so many new pieces in place.

Can a Louisville team that almost put 40 up against Georgia Tech put up some ungodly number in this spot? Or can Murray State hit the scoreboard with enough regularity to put a big spread in peril for the Cardinals? Murray State doesn’t even much of a following in their own region and command no respect. Could that result in oddsmakers going perhaps too far out of their way to entice wagers on a side that has the least built-in appeal of any team on the week two slate?

Lay the Jumbo Number

Even if you’re somehow able to fashion a coherent argument in favor of Murray State, it can never feel good going into a game outmanned to such a degree. You can site how Louisville is still working out the kinks of a new system, how the bulk of their defensive talent departed, or how they could be in auto-pilot mode facing the most unthreatening opponent this program will see in years. After all, there aren’t many players on the Racers’ roster who would be seeing playing time if they were on the opposite sideline. It’s hard to lay this many points, but this has Blowout City written all over it.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Louisville Cardinals minus 41.5 points.