Thurday’s College Pick: SMU Mustangs vs. Tulane Green Wave

SMU Mustangs (6-4 SU, ATS 5-4-0) vs. Tulane Green Wave (8-2 SU, ATS 8-2-0)

Date: Thursday, November 17th

Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mustangs +3/Green Wave -3 (Bet your games for FREE this week by using one of our Sportsbook Promo Codes!)

Money Line: Mustangs +127/Green Wave -159

Over/Under: 65

RECENT FORM

This season, the Mustangs will hope to continue their strong play against American Athletic opponents, as they are 4-2. Their overall record is 6-4. This season, the Mustangs have been favored in 5 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-4-0. Their average over-under betting line is 59.65 leading to an over-under record of 4-5-0.

The Mustangs are going for another win, as in their last game, they defeated South Florida, despite entering as the betting underdog. In the game, SMU finished with two touchdowns through the air while throwing for 280 yards. The team ended the game with three rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 273 yards on the ground.

So far, quarterback Tanner Mordecai has a passer rating of 108.86 while completing 207 of his 327 attempts. Currently, he has a total of 2780 passing yards. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Rashee Rice, who has caught 77 passes for a total of 1167 yards. The Mustangs have turned to running back Tyler Lavine a total of 76 times for a total of 405 rushing yards.

This year, the Green Wave have an overall record of 8-2. In addition, they have also played well in the American Athletic, going 5-1. This season, the Green Wave has been favored in 8 games while posting an ATS mark of 8-2-0. Their average over-under betting line is 54.4 leading to an over-under record of 4-6-0.

In their previous game, the Green Wave fell to UCF on the road by a score of 38-31. Tulane also picked up an ATS loss, as they were 1.0-point favorites entering the game. In the win, Tulane completed 59.0 of their 39 passes, 3 of which resulted in touchdowns. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 5.7 yards per carry for a total of 155 yards.

Heading into the matchup, Michael Pratt has an overall passer rating of 106.89 on a total of 2079 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. Through the air, the team will be looking for a big game from leading receiver Jha’Quan Jackson. On the season, he has caught 26 for 421 yards. The Mustangs have turned to running back Tyjae Spears a total of 142 times for a total of 875 rushing yards.

BETTING TRENDS

Through their last 10 matchups, SMU has gone 6-4-0 straight up and 5-5-0 vs the spread. On offense, the team averaged 40.3 points per game while allowing 32.6. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 4-6-0.

Across their five previous road games, SMU has an ATS mark of 3-2-0. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-2-0 while averaging 36.0 points per game.

In their last ten games, Tulane has covered the spread at a rate of 80.0% while putting together a straight-up record of 8-2-0. On average, the team scored 32.7 points while allowing 19.0, leading to a positive scoring differential.

Across their five previous home games, Tulane has an ATS mark of 3-2-0. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-2-0 while averaging 33.8 points per game.

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KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

So far, the Mustangs are averaging 40.3 points per game on offense, which is good for the 9th most in college football and will be tested against a Tulane defense allowing just 19.0 points per game.

So far, the SMU offense is averaging just 160.5 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 36.1 rush attempts per game (71st). This week, the Mustangs will be facing a Tulane defense ranked 98th in rush yards allowed per game. For the season, they have averaged 166.67 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into the game, the Green Wave are ranked 37th in points per game and have an excellent opportunity vs. an SMU defense that is allowing an average of 32.6 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

Although the Green Wave have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs. an SMU defense allowing teams to complete passes at a rate of 59.26%.

So far, the Tulane offense is near the NCAA average in rushing, averaging 177.7 yards per game on the ground. This year, they have handed the ball off an average of 40.2 times per game, placing them 33rd in the country. This week, the Green Wave will be facing an SMU defense that is ranked 166th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 193.75 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

FREE NCAAF PICK

Tulane -3. Be sure to check out our Week 12 Big Ten Value Bet!