Texas vs. Oklahoma: Best Bets and Analysis | Oct 12

No. 1 Texas Longhorns (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 7

Date/Time: Saturday, October 12th, 2024, 3:30PM (EST)

Where: Cotton Bowl Dallas, TX

TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread:TEX -14.5/Okl +14.5

Moneyline: Horns -700/OU +500

Total: 54.5

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One of the greatest rivalries in college football will take place this Saturday at the Cotton Bowl when the Red River Rivalry is renewed between the no. 1 Texas Longhorns and no. 18 Oklahoma Sooners. For the first time in the rivalry’s history, the 2024 version of the Red River Rivalry will be an SEC affair since both teams joined the Southeastern Conference, and it will have huge implications, especially with the Longhorns currently ranked as the number 1 team in the land and one of the overall favorites to make the college football playoffs.

Despite Oklahoma’s somewhat mediocre 4-1 SU start that was shadowed by a 25-15 loss to no. 6 Tennessee, the Sooners still have the opportunity to turn things around if they can take down the Longhorns this Saturday. Oklahoma has beaten Texas in 5 of the last six meetings but will be 14.5 point underdogs when both teams meet at the Cotton Bowl. Perhaps the biggest storylines heading into this year’s version of the Red River Rivalry surrounds the play at the quarterback position. Texas QB Arch Manning has played exceptionally well in replace of injured QB Quinn Ewers however Ewers is expected to return to the starting role this weekend. Meanwhile, the Sooners have turned to freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr after a dismal start with former starting QB Jackson Arnold. Needless to say, all eyes will be on the quarterback play on both sides of the field for this intriguing match-up.

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Betting Analysis

Through 5 games this season, the Sooners’ offense has not lived up to the expectations that Oklahoma fans are accustomed to experiencing. As mentioned earlier, the quarterback play has been questionable and the rushing attack ranks 100th in the FBS averaging just 128 yards per game on the ground. As a result, Oklahoma’s offense is failing to produce scoring opportunities which has been very evident throughout the season. If these struggles continue as most would expect, the Longhorns 3rd best defense in college football should feast in this highly anticipated showdown.

I just have not seen enough big play potential from Oklahoma’s offense that would suggest the Longhorns defense will not have the upper hand throughout 60 minutes of play. Meanwhile, the Texas offense appears to be in good hands with Ewers returning. Honestly, both Ewers and Manning are very high-caliber talents. While some could argue that Manning has played slightly better, Ewers has the experience and is the leader of this offense. More importantly, the Longhorns offense has the ability to attack on the ground and through the air with success. If the defense consistently gets off the field like I expect, I would not be surprised if Texas wins this battle without much resistance!

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Betting Trends

• Texas is 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• Texas has hit the “over” in 6 of the last eight games.
• Texas is 12-1 SU in the last 13 games as the betting favorite.
• Texas is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games against Oklahoma.
• Oklahoma is 3-6 ATS in the last nine games.
• Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in the last ten games against SEC opponents.
• Oklahoma has hit the “over” in 4 of the last five games as the betting underdog.
• Oklahoma is 5-1 SU in the last six games against Texas.

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Betting Prediction

I do not have a lot of confidence in this Oklahoma offense, and I expect it will be exposed by an elite Longhorns defense. From a match-up perspective, I just don’t see many paths to Oklahoma being successful in this year’s match-ups. While rivalry games can be unpredictable, I am going to lay the points with the much better team!

Jay’s Pick: Take Texas -14.5!

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