Texas vs. Arizona State Peach Bowl: Longhorns vs. Sun Devils Picks & Predictions

Texas Longhorns (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2 SU, 11-2 ATS)
College Football Quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl
Date/Time: Wednesday, January 1, 2025 at 1PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN

The Texas Longhorns face the Arizona State Sun Devils in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal, also doubling as the Peach Bowl. This is a high-stakes matchup, with the winner that much closer to having a chance to play for the CFP Title. Arizona State last played on December 7, winning the Big 12 Conference Championship against Iowa State, 45-19. Texas, meanwhile, is coming off their December 21 win over Clemson in the first round of the expanded College Football Playoff, 38-24. Who can shine in this gigantic spot in Atlanta?

Power of Each Team

While being put into a new conference was a hardship for many teams this season, both the Longhorns and Sun Devils really flipped the script. Not only were the Sun Devils coming off consecutive 3-9 seasons, but were thrown into the Big 12 and facing teams in places with which they had little to no familiarity. To rise from all that with this kind of season under head coach Kenny Dillingham really speaks volumes about the distance they traveled to be in this position. And while Texas has been a team more-geared to success overall, getting this all done in your first season in the SEC also says a lot about them.

Texas was basically perfect this season, if not for two games with Georgia. They lost by 15 points to the Bulldogs more in mid-season before dropping an overtime game to them earlier this month in the SEC title game, 22-19. Other than that, they were perfect in their maiden voyage through the SEC. Not to poo-poo the work of the Longhorns this year, but some of their wins didn’t look as good by season’s end as they did at the time they won, with wins over Michigan, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt losing some shine. And while beating Clemson carries some weight and getting through the SEC as unscathed as they were was impressive, they still don’t have that signature win that makes you super-confident at this level.

Then again, it’s not as if ASU has some giant nuggets on their ledger, either. Beating four ranked teams and three in your last four games carries a lot of weight, but with these teams, we know they’re good without really being sure either of them can be great. And what might result is a contest that’s a bit wide-open in terms of analysis where a host of different outcomes could be justified and make a lot of sense. It’s just a game where it’s difficult not to be torn or at least significantly-conflicted from an ATS standpoint.

Reasons to Like ASU

First of all, potential Sun Devils backers have to like getting almost two touchdowns in a CFP format. This is by far their toughest test of the year. The ASU offense will be seeing a defense that has talent beyond what they’ve seen this season. I think a lot of people are sleeping on QB Sam Leavitt, who is commanding a mere fraction of the respect other QBs are receiving in the CFP, including the one he faces in this game, Texas QB Quinn Ewers. And while not as electric, Leavitt was better at taking care of the ball, was useful with his feet, and brought out the best of the weapons he has around him—guys like RB Cam Skattebo and his 1568 yards rushing and 22 TDs. Not having Jordan Tyson, however, is a drawback in the personnel department, despite some promise shown by some other guys.

Not that you’d consider Texas weak in any area on defense, but if looking to make inroads, the run might not be the worst avenue. Leavitt and Skattebo would like to do some damage in that area. It would allow them to protect their own defense against the high-powered Longhorns, who will be trying to do the same thing. And when you’re dealing with this big of an underdog, it doesn’t hurt to have a team like Arizona State that can be quite adept in deadening the game a bit, slowing things down, and keeping opposing offenses from gaining too much of a foothold.

Possible Edges for Texas

The Longhorns’ offense really looked good against Clemson. It’s a peculiar wrinkle that the teams seeded lower and perhaps benefit from some more recent action. They’re probably more likely to start fast as a result. If they are running the ball well between their cast of backs in Quintrevion Wisner, Jaydon Blue, and Jerrick Gibson, and we see this Arizona State “D” having trouble getting off the field, we could see the makings of a very long day for ASU. This spread is big for a reason. If Texas can bottle up Skattebo, does Leavitt have what he needs around him to make a sizeable dent another way? If Texas’ run-defense is tough, what are the options? And can an ASU defense that gives up a lot of success avoid enough big plays to be able to hang in there? Questions are abound.

Take the Points

Obviously, Texas is the better team and the more bankable entity in this CFP context. But is the case being overstated? I think it might just be—if only slightly. I don’t think Arizona State can use its will and fighting spirit to make all the football realities working against them in this spot disappear, but I think it will come in handy. I see them not giving up, playing hard, and showing a lot of what allowed them to travel the extreme distances they needed to go in order to get here. I see them hanging in there and getting the cover. I’ll take the Sun Devils.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Arizona State Sun Devils plus 13 points.

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