Red Raiders at Longhorns Pick – Revenge Match Prediction

Texas still leads the Big 12 Conference, as it has all season, and yet may still need a victory in its regular-season finale Saturday night against Texas Tech to make the conference championship game.

With a win, the Longhorns are in and another step closer to the College Football Playoff. But with a loss and a couple of cards falling the wrong way, Texas could miss out on everything.

Meanwhile, you know the Red Raiders would love to throw a wrench in those plans in this last meeting between the teams before the ‘Horns bolt for the SEC.

College Football Betting Odds

The Week 13 college football betting market opened Texas at -14 for Friday night, with an over/under of around 53. Early betting action then shaved a point and a half off that spread.

According to Sagarin’s ratings at Sagarin.com, the line on this game should be 14 points.

Texas Tech-Texas Betting Preview

The Red Raiders ride a three-game winning streak into Friday night after edging Central Florida last Saturday 24-23. Texas Tech spotted the Knights the first 14 points of the game but rallied to lead 24-17 in the fourth quarter. The Raiders then made the defensive play of the game, blocking a Central Florida extra-point attempt, then ran the last 5:30 off the clock to preserve victory.

But Tech couldn’t cover the spread as a two-point favorite.

The Red Raiders allowed 486 yards of Knights offense, including 238 on the ground.

About a month ago, Texas Tech sat at 3-5 overall and 2-3 in Big 12 play. But the Raiders then beat TCU 35-28, Kansas 16-13, and UCF to become bowl-eligible.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns bring a five-game winning streak into Friday night after beating Iowa State in Ames last Saturday 26-16. Texas, favored by 6.5 points, only led 6-3 at the half but expanded that advantage to 23-9 in the fourth quarter and held on from there.

The Longhorns out-gained the Cyclones 411-332 and held ISU to just 9 yards on the ground.

Back in October, Texas lost the Shootout to Oklahoma 34-30. Since then, the ‘Horns beat Houston, BYU, Kansas, TCU, and Iowa State. However, they needed a late touchdown to beat the Cougars, who aren’t very good at the moment, and the wins over the Wildcats and Horned Frogs both came by field goals.

At 7-1 in conference play, Texas makes the Big 12 championship game with a win Friday. Actually, even if they lose, the ‘Horns might still make it. But a win would also keep Texas in the running for the CFP, while a loss would eliminate them.

Common Opponents

These two teams played seven common opponents this season, Wyoming and six conference rivals. Texas played those foes to 7-0 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, and +128 YPG, Texas Tech to 4-3 both SU and ATS, and +23 YPG.

Texas Tech-Texas Recent History

The Longhorns beat the Red Raiders four meetings in a row through 2021 and led last year’s game 31-17 in the third quarter. But Texas Tech rallied to force overtime and won it with a fumble recovery and a field goal 37-34.

Totals Report

The Unders are 7-4 in Red Raiders games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.

The Unders are 8-3 in Longhorns games, which are averaging 51 points.

The Overs are 5-0 over the last five meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Texas owns advantages on both sides of the ball, especially with a run defense holding opponents to just 83 YPG. The Longhorns also own the better performance against common opponents. Also, while Texas lost this match-up last year, it’s a better team now than it was that day. Plus, the line moved in a good direction. We’re giving the points with the Longhorns on Friday night.