Texas State vs. Arizona State: Week 3 College Football Upset Alert?

The Arizona State Sun Devils come to San Marcos on Thursday for a showdown with the Texas State Bobcats. The Sun Devils moved to 2-0 following a 30-23 win over Mississippi State on Saturday. They are now members of the Big 12, with their conference opener coming in their next game. In the meantime, they’re being eased into the season, though a road spot against the upstart Bobcats could prove to be trickier than advertised. On Friday, the Bobcats moved to 2-0 and served notice as home underdogs in thumping UTSA 49-10. Who should we get behind in this Thursday special to get our CFB betting week off to a fast start?

Can the Bobcats Stop the Sun Devils?

It’s nice that the Bobcats have started to see success, but this could be where the context gets a little too elevated, taking on a former Pac-12 team now in the Big 12. Texas State is more a newcomer to the FBS, residing in the far-less respected Sun Belt Conference. Last year was the first measure of real success the Bobcats had, putting together a nice season and winning a bowl game. GJ Kinne has really gotten this program on the right track. This, however, could be a little different.

We’ve already seen the Sun Devils strike a few different ways on offense this season. Against Wyoming in a week one wipeout, it was QB Sam Leavitt getting it done with his arm, with a more-cabaret approach in the backfield with a lot of backs getting production. Against Mississippi State, we saw Leavitt actually getting it done with his legs with two TD runs, getting a giant assist from RB Cam Skattebo, who ran for a massive 262 yards. Let’s just say when you look back at the end of the season at Big 12 teams running the ball this well, it’s not usually a Sun Belt team that brings an end to it. Texas State looked like they really got it together on “D” last week after a rough opener against Lamar, but this is where things can start to look a little different.

Not Selling Texas State Short

Again, the bias is built-in to regard this as a winning spot for Arizona St., just with the respective overall stature of both teams. It might not be so easy, though. Arizona State never played Texas State before and though they will need to get used to playing in this part of the country, they aren’t in these parts very often. And it’s possible that Texas State might have something cooking with this mix of talent they have. QB Jordan McCloud, a transfer from James Madison, has fit in nicely, throwing for over 300 yards last week while throwing two TDs and running in a pair, as well. The established part of this running-offense is Ismail Mahdi and he has played well in spots the first two games, but their strength on their offense might be their depth, with a plethora of different backs and receivers getting into the mix, guys like WR Joey Hobert, another experienced part of this offense. McCloud has stepped into a good situation, a rising offense with some nice pieces in place.

Not Giving the Sun Devils Too Much Credit

Before getting too hung up on the different levels in which both teams operate or the good start from the Sun Devils so far this season, let’s remember they’re a team that faced a lot of difficulties the last two years. Coming off two straight 3-9 seasons and in the second season of Kenny Dillingham’s tenure, the Sun Devils still have a lot to prove. Before thinking it sounds far-fetched for Texas State to beat a team like ASU, remember the Sun Devils in the last two years have been bad enough to lose to Eastern Michigan, almost lose to Southern Utah, and get annihilated at home by Fresno State in an embarrassing shutout. But it’s still hard to watch their offense these first two games and think they haven’t upgraded from the last two seasons, in which case we’re getting to the limits of what you can expect from a team like Texas State.

X-Factors

In the last handful of seasons, the closest to Bobcat Stadium the Sun Devils have seen was a game against Oklahoma State. This is a funky, out-of-the-way location against a team from a conference they seldom play. It’s a foreign kind of vibe. Sure, Arizona State is a southwest team and accustomed to any heat they might encounter in Texas this week, but it’s still a different environment for the Sun Devils. While this is more of a common spot for ASU that a lot of teams face in Week 3, it’s pretty big for a program like Texas State. This would actually represent one of their more high-profile victories as a program, and by looking at the odds, it’s a game they have a realistic shot of winning. With their coaching, upward trajectory, and the quality of their players, are they really out of their element at home against a team that’s been in the muck for much of the last two years? Or should we take what we’ve seen the last two weeks from ASU to heart and figure they can keep it going on the road in a winnable spot?

Take the Small Home Dog

The visceral move is to take Arizona State, just based on everything you know about each program. And it’s not like ASU is off to some awful start where you need to go out of your way to question them. I just sense Texas State won’t be easily set off-course this week. I think offensively, they have enough juice to keep this Sun Devils’ defense on its toes while generating enough big plays on “D” to keep the Arizona State offense from getting on a really big roll, especially on the ground. I see McCloud and this Texas State run game stepping up and coming to life in this big home game environment. I’ll go with Texas State in this one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Texas State Bobcats plus 2 points.