Texas-San Antonio vs. San Diego State Odds & Picks

Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (11-2 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)

Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl

Date and Time: Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 7:30PM EST

Where: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: UTSA -3/SDSU +3 (Bookmaker – No frills! No fat bonuses! Just enormous limits and rock solid trust from the second oldest sportsbook on the web, dating back to the 90’s!)

Over/Under Total: 49.5

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners take on the San Diego Aztecs in the Frisco Bowl on December 21. It has been a successful season for both teams, with the Roadrunners coming off a big 12-1 season that culminated in them taking down the Conference USA championship. They take on an 11-win Aztecs team that slowed down at the end of the season, but still managed to extract a lot out of what was a successful campaign. Who can close the season out in style in Frisco on the 21st?

Who Comes in Here with Steam?

This might be a strange question to ask of teams that won this many games, but after a little break and being at the end of the season, it’s worth examining which team is in better overall shape and it might just be UTSA. Granted, their only loss of the season was in their second-to-last game, a 22-point loss to North Texas. And allowing 41 points and 571 passing yards to WKU quarterback Bailey Zappe in their last appearance isn’t promising. But struggling against some good conference opposition was maybe to be expected and they got through it at 12-1.

With one covered spread since October 23, we’ve seen a San Diego State squad waning. They’ve hung on well in the last half of the season, continuing to pile wins after their loss to Fresno, with nice wins over Nevada and Boise in the late-season to solidify their conference standing. But they have been underperforming from a betting standpoint, highlighted by the ugly 46-13 loss to Utah State. And its recency, in light of SDSU’s other struggles, makes it a hard image to shake heading into this bowl matchup.

UTSA Advantages

A five-hour drive to Frisco, the Roadrunners get this one in their home-state, with the Aztecs having to make more of a trip. And there can’t be a lot of wind in their sails after the disaster against Utah State. So maybe there’s a little momentum advantage for the Roadrunners. San Diego State is without their QB of choice in Lucas Johnson, while other guys are dinged up or questionable for this game. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are well-intact from a personnel standpoint.

Certain matchups seem to point toward San Antonio, as well. After giving up almost 600 yards passing in their last game, they catch an opponent in this spot who manages very little aerial success. The Aztecs depend on the run-game, led by Greg Bell, with Chance Bell also chipping in. This is an area where the Texas-San Antonio defense is best. And with Jordan Brookshire behind center for the Aztecs, the UTSA pass-rush, led by Clarence Hicks, could get after a SDSU offensive line that hasn’t been great in repelling the pass-rush of late.

The Roadrunners’ balanced offense could be tough on an Aztecs’ defense that doesn’t feature much balance. The scope is so narrow for the San Diego St. offense, whereas UTSA has a wealth of option running through QB Frank Harris, an efficient and sometimes-prolific thrower who is also nifty with his legs. Sincere McCormick is a top back with almost 1500 yards and 15 TDs. Along with a package of three dynamic receivers, this is an offense that get you a few different ways. You’d think that an SDSU run-defense that has been really good all season, along with a stout pass-rush and playmaking defense could come in handy here. However, a pass-defense that is sagging to the finish line of the season could be easy-pickings for Harris and his weapons.

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Possibilities for San Diego State

Analyzing bowl games along the lines of a conference-assessment can lead one down the wrong road. At the same time, the best 5-6 wins scored by these two teams combined probably all belong to San Diego State, including a win over Pac-12 champion Utah. They’ve been with much better company this season. We can’t look at a one-game window against Utah State and forget that they have a defense that has been a thorn in the side of some pretty strong MWC offenses this season. And outside a context that isn’t a Conference USA offensive free-for-all, maybe we don’t see the anticipated offensive fireworks from the Roadrunners.

The Aztecs have the defense, especially up-front, to render the UTSA offense a bit one-dimensional. And that one dimension might be enough based on how shaky the Aztecs’ pass-defense has looked. But with Cameron Thomas and Jonah Tavai up front, along with ball-hawks like Trenton Thompson and Patrick McMorris, the Roadrunners might be seeing a level of menace they haven’t been seeing in their offense-first conference.

Lay the Number

While some matchup components on paper might shake out well for the Aztecs, this is a time of the season when having a close-to-ideal version of a team carries a lot of weight. It just seems more-likely that the Roadrunners can deliver on that front. Whether it’s the diminishing number of options on the SDSU offense, the catastrophic way they finished the regular season, or simply the locale of this game, they seem like a slightly less-reliable proposition. This means a lot to San Antonio and I expect them to show the extra energy boost needed to get over the hump in this one. I’ll take UTSA in the Frisco Bowl.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus 3 points. Want more free bets? Check out GTBets Sportsbook where they’ll give you a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 and they’ll give you a 50% bonus if you struggle and need to re-up!