No. 23 Texas Longhorns (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. No. 18 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday November 3rd, 2012. 3:30PM Eastern
Where: Jones ATT Stadium Lubbock, T.X.
TV: ABC
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Tex +7/Tex. Tech -7
Over/Under Total: 67.5
The battle for the Chancellor’s Spurs will take place this Saturday in Lubbock when the no. 18 Texas Tech Red Raiders host the no. 23 Texas Longhorns. The visiting Longhorns have won the last 3 meetings dating back to 2009 but will find their selves as rather surprising 7 point underdogs when they meet the Red Raiders inside Jones ATT Stadium. Texas Tech has had a very respectable 6-2 SU start this season with a few signature wins over West Virginia and TCU. Still, no other win would be bigger for Tommy Tuberville’s Red Raiders than a win this Saturday against the rivaled Longhorns.
Despite some brief bouts of success, Texas Tech has not captured many wins over the Longhorns in recent years. In fact, the Red Raiders have won just two games against Texas dating back to the late 90’s. This week the betting public seems to think Texas Tech will get their 3rd victory in so many years. Despite being a touchdown favorite over the Longhorns, which is a rarity, the betting public is still siding with Texas Tech by nearly 75% in early betting action this week.
For Texas Tech to pull out the victory, the Red Raiders defense will need to get on track this weekend. Despite having the 12th best total defense in the country allowing just 300 yards per game, the Red Raiders defense has given up more than 50 points for two straight weeks. Of course one of those games was a triple overtime winner against TCU but the defense has still had some problems in recent weeks coming up with stops. Last week Kansas State QB Collin Klein was able to keep Texas Tech’s defense off balance with a mixture of success on the ground and through the air.
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The Longhorns would love for that type of similar success out of their quarterback this week. However, the Longhorns may not even be sure who their quarterback will be. In an ugly 21-17 victory over Kansas last week, starting quarterback David Ash was yanked in the 4th quarter after completing just 8 of 16 passes and throwing 2 picks. Backup junior Case McCoy was able to come in and lead a late touchdown drive by completing 5 of 7 passes for 68 yards to help the Longhorns avoid the upset. However, no word has been given towards who the starter will be this Saturday.
One thing that is certain is that the Longhorns will need to score points to win this game no matter which quarterback is behind center. The Red Raiders own the 11th ranked offense averaging a stout 506 yards per game which includes the 3rd best passing offense in the FBS averaging 357 yards per game. QB Seth Doege has posted stellar numbers this season completing 70% passing for 2,540 yards with 30 scores and 8 picks. Not only has Doege been playing very well but he is starting to get some help from the receiving core. WR Eric Ward has really played well in recent weeks racking up 17 catches for 222 yards and 5 touchdowns in the last two games. If the Red Raiders can keep that 1-2 combo going, they should be able to put pressure on a weak Texas defense.
The story for Texas Tech this season in terms of success has been turnovers. The Red Raiders have turned the ball over 3 times in each of their two losses this season. If the turnovers happen to show up again in Lubbock this Saturday, the Longhorns have the offensive capability to convert those mistakes into points and make things very interesting.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m going with the public on this one for the simple fact Texas has played like garbage in recent weeks. Mack Brown has some serious problems on his hands and that will become even more apparent after this Saturday. Red Raiders win big!
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