Texas Longhorns (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday October 3rd, 12:00PM EST
Where: Amon Carter Stadium Fort Worth, T.X.
TV: ABC
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Texas +15/TCU -15
Over/Under Total: 71.5
The TCU Horned Frogs survived a shootout last week in Lubbock with a 55-52 victory over Texas Tech. In a game that featured very little defense and over 1,350 yards of total offense by both teams, the Horned Frogs needed a little luck to beat the Red Raiders. At 4th and goal at the 4 yard line with 23 seconds to go, Trevone Boykins pass to Josh Doctson was deflected up into the air and fortunately landed in the hands of senior running back Aaron Green in the back of the end zone. It was that fortunate tip of the football that kept the Horned Frogs unbeaten season alive and they will get a chance to stay on the unbeaten path when they host the Texas Longhorns inside Amon Carter Stadium this Saturday.
The Horned Frogs had luck fall their way last week but they have not been lucky on the injury front. TCU has been decimated with injuries on both sides of the football. On defense alone, the Horned Frogs have had 7 different guys miss time due to injuries. In last weeks win over Texas Tech, the offense caught the injury bug as WR Ty Slanina went down for the season with a broken collarbone. The TCU wide receiving corps were already a bit thin with injuries and suspension issues behind the starters. Now the group that Heisman hopeful quarterback Trevone Boykin will try to target has become even thinner as the offense moves forward.
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The good news for TCU is that their core is pretty much still intact at least on offense. Boykin has been masterful completing 64.7% passing for 1,470 yards with 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the season. The TCU star quarterback is also 2nd on the team in rushing with an additional 190 yards with 2 touchdowns. Aaron Green, who caught that game winning tip last week, has amassed 434 yards and 6 touchdowns through the first 4 games of the season. However the guy that has been overshadowing those two stars in recent weeks has been WR Josh Doctson. After a 5 catch and 171 yard performance against SMU, Doctson went off against Texas Tech last week to the tune of 18 catches for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns.
If you consider the fact that Texas has been blistered against the pass this year giving up 277 yards per game (106th in FBS), then this weeks matchup potentially does not bode well. However, the good news for UT fans is that they have been very competitive in recent weeks. In fact if not for special teams mistakes the past two weeks, the Longhorns could easily be 3-1. They have got big plays from the defense like they did with two touchdowns last week and the offense has found ways to score points despite a quarterback carrousel.
Freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard earned the started nod two weeks ago against Cal and delivered by hitting 20 of 31 passing for 364 yards with an interception. Last week Heard has trouble hitting passes but his running capability is what will keep him in the starting role. Heard has rushed for 307 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last 3 games. Obviously the freshman has ways to make plays with his feet but the Longhorns need progress quickly as a passer if they are going to start winning some of these close football games this season.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: None of the trends indicate any favors towards Texas this week. The Longhorns are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road while TCU has covered the mark in 10 of their last 11 games at home.The Horned Frogs have also covered 14 of the last 19 overall. Additionally, I did not see much from Texass offense last week to indicate they can maintain pace with this TCU offense. If not for the big defensive touchdowns, it may not have been close. If they continue to stumble on offense, TCU will win this one convincingly. Take TCU -15
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