Texas Longhorns vs Kansas Jayhawks Predicted Spread Winner
Texas Longhorns (6-4 SU, ATS 5-4-0) vs Kansas Jayhawks (6-4 SU, ATS 6-2-1)
Date: Saturday, November 19th
Location: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
TV: FS1
Point Spread: Longhorns -9/Jayhawks +9 (MyBookie: Bonus code PREDICT100 gets you a 100% real cash bonus up to $300!)
Money Line: Longhorns -357/Jayhawks +275
Over/Under: 64.5
RECENT FORM
The Longhorns are coming into the game with a 4-3 record in Big 12 play. Their overall record is 6-4. This season, the Longhorns have been favored in 8 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-4-0. Their average over-under betting line is 53.6 leading to an over-under record of 4-5-0.
The Longhorns head into the game coming off a 17-10 loss vs. TCU. With the defeat, Texas also added an ATS loss to their resume. For the game, Texas threw for 171 yards but did not come up with a passing touchdown. Their overall completion percentage came in at 43.6%. In the rushing game, the Longhorns did not find the endzone, finishing with a total of 28 yards on the ground.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers comes into the game having completed 117 of 212 passes for a passer rating of 86.34. Overall, he has a total of 1507 passing yards. Receiver Xavier Worthy heads into the game, as the team’s leader in receiving yards, with a total of 584. The top option in the run game for the team is Bijan Robinson, who has carried the ball 204 times for a total of 1158 yards.
So far this year, the Jayhawks have a 3-4 record in the Big 12 conference. Kansas has an overall mark of 6-4. This season, the Jayhawks have been favored in 2 games while posting an ATS mark of 6-2-1. Their average over-under betting line is 55.55 leading to an over-under record of 5-4-0.
Kansas is coming off a 15-point loss to Texas Tech by a score of 43-28. The Jayhawks entered the game as 3.5-point home underdogs, making this an ATS loss. In the game, Kansas finished with three touchdowns through the air while throwing for 283 yards. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 7.6 yards per carry for a total of 242 yards.
Jason Bean heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating of 119.0 on a total of 1256 yards through the air. Through the air, the team will be looking for a big game from leading receiver Lawrence Arnold. On the season, he has caught 31 for 529 yards. The Longhorns have turned to running back Devin Neal a total of 142 times for a total of 951 rushing yards.
BETTING TRENDS
Against the spread, the Longhorns have gone 6-4-0 over their last 10 games. Straight up they have a record of 6-4-0. On average, the team scored 33.5 points while allowing 21.3, leading to a positive scoring differential.
In their last 5 games away from home, the Longhorns have a straight-up record of 2-3-0 while going 2-3-0 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 34.8 points per game in these contests.
In their last 10 contests, the Jayhawks have a straight-up record of 6-4-0 while covering the spread at a rate of 60.0%. On offense, the team averaged 36.9 points per game while allowing 30.4. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 6-4-0.
Kansas has played well in their previous 5 home games, going 4-1-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 34.6 points per game while allowing 20.4. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-0-1.
More Picks: Get our recommended wager for the GT/UNC Week 12 game in Chapel Hill
KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS
Heading into the game, the Longhorns are ranked 34th in points per game, averaging 33.5 points per contest. Texas could add to these numbers vs a Kansas defense that is allowing an average of 30.4 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.
One aspect of the game that could benefit the Texas offense is that they are facing off a Kansas defense that has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Jayhawks are just 82nd in sacks per game.
This season, the run game has not been a big part of the Texas offense, as they are averaging just 34.7 attempts per game. With their limited opportunites, they have an average of 176.0 yards per contest, good for 50th in the NCAA. This week, the Longhorns will be facing a Kansas defense ranked 129th in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 186.25 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.
So far, the Jayhawks are averaging 36.9 points per game on offense, which is good for 17th most in college football but will be put the test against a Texas defensive unit that is giving up just 21.3 points per game.
Although the Jayhawks have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs a Texas defense allowing teams to complete passes at a rate of 66.56%.
So far, the Kansas offense is 20th in yards per game, despite handing the ball off an average of 35.2 times per contest (80th). This week, the Jayhawks will be facing a Texas defense that is 43rd in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they have averaged 186.0 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.
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