Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Pick 11/23/19

Texas Longhorns (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 – 3:30 PM ET
Where: McLane Stadium – Waco, TX
TV: FS1

Point Spread: TEX +5.5 / BU -5.5 (Bovada)
Total: 59.5

Power Ratings: Baylor -3

Takeaways From Week Twelve

The Longhorns come into this game by way of a narrow 23-21 loss when it fell on the road in Ames, Iowa, against the Iowa State Cyclones. Though the Horns failed to get the win, they did manage to produce a cover when they came in under the number as a seven-point underdog.

The Bears come into this contest off their first loss of the year, and it is one that they likely want to put behind them as soon as possible. Baylor led by as much as 25 when it hosted conference juggernaut Oklahoma last Saturday in Waco. However, Sooners Quarterback Jalen Hurts led the Crimson and Cream back to escape with a 34-31 win and crush the hearts of the Bear faithful. Nevertheless, Baylor did manage to procure profits when it closed as an 11-point underdog.

How the Public is Betting the Texas-Baylor Game

As it stands, 68% of the consensus like the Bears here laying the points. As a result of this heavy early lean, we have seen this market soar by 1.5 points upward from Baylor opening as a four-point favorite.

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The Historicals

These two sides last met in 2018 in Austin when the Longhorns hosted the Bears. The Bears would close as a 14-point underdog and fall to the Burnt Orange by a score of 23-17, allowing BU to cover and snap a three-game Texas cover streak in the series. Heading into this Big 12 match-up, the Longhorns are riding a four-game win streak against Baylor.

Betting Trends

The Road Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between both parties. For those that play Totals, the Under is 6-0 ATS in the previous six match-ups between Texas and Baylor.

Injury Concerns

Heading into this conference clash, neither Texas nor Baylor have declared emergent injury concerns to key personnel.

Why We Like Baylor To Cover

Though the Bears suffered a gut-wrenching defeat last week, there is still plenty to play for Coach Matt Rhule and company. After all, if Baylor wants to settle the score with Oklahoma and earn a re-match to avenge OU’s comeback win, all the Bears have to do is win out to get another shot at the Crimson and Cream in the Big 12 Championship. Moreover, Texas has bullied the Bears in this series as of late. A win for this program against the Hook-Ems will allow Baylor to establish itself as an in-state power and take back control of this Lone Star State rivalry. Baylor has the opportunity to do so at home with their fan base behind them. Nothing can get rid of a heart-breaking loss quicker than following it with up a huge program win. Given the fact that Texas has played losing football on the road this year (1-2 SU), I have to like Baylor’s chances of getting the job done with the home field working in their favor.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Baylor -6

Ultimately, the play of both teams’ defenses will be instrumental in determining the outcome of this contest. For most of the 2019 season, the Baylor defense has been heralded for its stingy play and physical presence. Be that as it may, the Bears still own quite the reputable unit after their loss to Oklahoma. BU did force Hurts to turn the ball over several times, and they sit in the top-25 in scoring defense, giving up a less than friendly 20.5 points per match. Texas, on the other hand, has been quite kind to the opposition as they give up an 85th-ranked 29.9 points per contest. Against the pass, Texas is one of the worst teams in America in defending it. The Longhorns stand 126th overall in the FBS, giving up 305 yards through the air per game. Baylor will be primed to take advantage as the Bears average 263.6 passing yards per match (38th in the FBS), and they score 34.9 points per game (26th in America). When you combine the difference in defensive play, the situational match-up working into Baylor’s favor, and motivational intangibles, the Bears should be in a position to not only cover this line but perhaps lay waste to Texas while they finally get the Longhorn-sized monkey finally off their back.