Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Total Pick

No. 11 Texas Longhorns (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday September 9th, 2023. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, AL
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: UT +7.5/ALA -7.5
Moneyline: UT +240/ALA -285
Total: 57.5

Perhaps the biggest match-up, thus far this season, will take place at Bryant-Denny Stadium this Saturday when the 3rd ranked Alabama Crimson Tide host the no. 11 Texas Longhorns with College GameDay on-hand. After two stellar recruiting classes during his opening act in Austin, Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has quickly raised the expectations for Longhorn faithful and has some wondering if Texas is primed to return as a national powerhouse for the first time in more than a decade. The Longhorns program will be put to the ultimate test when they go on the road this Saturday against 3rd ranked Alabama.

As everyone knows, the 3rd ranked Crimson Tide have been the biggest dynasty in college football during the modern era. After failing to make the College Football Playoff for just the 2nd time in history, the Crimson Tide faithful believe the CFP is another likely destination. Those hopes were vindicated last week when first-year starter QB Jalen Milroe set a school mark by becoming the first Alabama quarterback to pass for three touchdowns and rush for two touchdowns in a single game. The true sophomore had a phenomenal debut as Alabama crushed Middle Tennessee 56-7. The Crimson Tide are hoping that offensive success especially from Milroe, will continue when the competition picks up this week.

Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

The Crimson Tide opened as 8.5 point betting favorites this week, but that number moved surprisingly quickly in favor of Texas. At this time, the Longhorns are single score (+7) underdogs over Saban’s dynasty. Personally, I think that early movement speaks volumes towards people truly believing that Texas is taking big steps forward towards becoming a national powerhouse. However, I am not convinced that is going to be enough for this match-up that will take place in Tuscaloosa with Dixieland Delight blaring in front of 100,000 fans.

Despite the rise in talent at Texas, the Longhorns will still be led by QB Quinn Ewers, who is a pretty average-at-best quarterback. Ewers has struggled with accuracy issues, especially under pressure. The Crimson Tide has a very athletic and nasty talent that will create pressure to keep Ewers uncomfortable. After that, I just don’t see this Longhorns running offense providing enough spark with Bijan Robinson no longer in the backfield. For Texas to truly contend in this game, it will have to be with a great defensive effort in a lower-scoring game. The Longhorns return an absolutely stacked defense that could give QB Jalen Milroe a very difficult challenge.

Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends

• Texas is 7-3 SU in the last ten games
• Texas is 2-4 ATS in the last six games
• Texas has hit the “under” in 13 of the last 20 games
• Texas has hit the “over” in 4 of the last five games on the road
• Alabama is 21-0 SU in the last 21 games at home
• Alabama is 6-1 SU in the last seven games against Big 12 opponents
• Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in September
• Alabama is 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 games played at home

,

Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Prediction

I think Alabama’s defense is the difference in this match-up. I just expect the Crimson Tide defense to win the battle of the trenches and make things very difficult for QB Quinn Ewers. However, I expect both defenses to provide the most value towards our betting lines. While I think Alabama likely covers, I like the “under” as the better bet!
Jay’s Pick: Take the under 57.5