Texas Bowl Pick: Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State Predictions

Texas A&M Aggies (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) vs. No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
TaxAct Texas Bowl Betting Preview
Date/Time: Wednesday December 27th, 2023. 9:00PM (EST)
Where: NRG Stadium Houston, TX.
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: A&M -1.5/OSU +1.5
Moneyline: TAMU -130/Ohio St. +110
Total: 53

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Following an eventful 2023 campaign, the Texas A&M Aggies will meet the no. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys in this year’s TaxAct Texas Bowl, which will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The Aggies will enter this postseason match-up following a disappointing 7-5 season. Before the season ended, former Head Coach Jimbo Fisher was terminated from his duties, which triggered a record 77 million contract buyout. While the Aggies have already hired their replacement in former Duke Head Coach Mike Elko, current interim Head Coach Elijah Robinson will be responsible for leading the Aggies against the Cowboys in the TaxAct Texas Bowl.

Despite the coaching changes, the Aggies have already suffered some additional losses following the season. Former starting QB Max Johnson entered the transfer portal following an up-and-down season, which resulted in 9 touchdowns and five picks. As a result, the Aggies will turn to QB Jaylen Henderson against Oklahoma State. Henderson started the final three games of the season and flashed potential. The dual-threat quarterback produced eight total touchdowns and just two picks. Therefore, the Aggies feel that Henderson may be the quarterback for the immediate future and will get another opportunity to shine against the Cowboys.

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Betting Analysis

Oddly, the Aggies enter this Texas Bowl match-up as slight favorites against an Oklahoma State team that finished the season 9-4 SU. However, the 9-4 SU campaign was a roller coaster ride that featured early losses to the likes of South Alabama and Iowa. The Cowboys found some mid-season momentum with wins over no. 23 Kansas and no. 9 Oklahoma but then lost two of their final four games, including a disastrous 45-3 beating at the hands of UCF as an outright betting favorite. Needless to say, it’s difficult to predict what Oklahoma State team will take the field when they meet the Aggies at NRG Stadium.

Strictly from a personnel perspective, the Cowboys have the most talented player on the field in RB Ollie Gordon II, who rushed for a staggering 1,610 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. Despite struggles from Oklahoma State quarterbacks, specifically Alan Bowman who nearly tossed as many interceptions as touchdowns (13 TDs, 12 INTs), the Cowboys were electric in the running game behind Gordon. As a result, Gordon and the Cowboys’ dynamic rushing attack will present a unique challenge for a Texas A&M defense that played very strong against the run this year, allowing just 106 yards per game on the ground, which ranked 17th in the FBS.

While Oklahoma State will look to get their running game going against a stout Texas A&M defense, the Aggies offense will likely feature a similar attack that is centered around the running game. I mentioned earlier that QB Jaylen Henderson is a dual-threat talent and the Aggies also have a talented stable of running backs as well. Personally, I expect that the Aggies will put a heavy focus on the ground game, as they did for most of the season, in an attempt to keep Henderson in comfortable situations. As a result, I expect this game will be decided by the offense that can get the running game going and, perhaps more importantly, avoid turnovers!

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Tide Betting Trends

• The Aggies are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Aggies are 3-7 ATS in the last ten games against Big 12 opponents.
• The Aggies are 1-4 SU in the last five games against Oklahoma State.
• The Aggies are 6-0 SU in the last six games as a betting favorite.
• The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
• The Cowboys have hit the “over” in six of the last eight games.
• The Cowboys are 7-2 SU in the last nine games.
• The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 games against Texas A&M.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Prediction

Simply put, I believe the Aggies have far superior talent than this Oklahoma State team, with the exception of RB Ollie Gordon II. Barring a disastrous performance from the Aggies defense, I believe they will exploit an inferior Oklahoma State defense in route to a relatively easy victory!

Jay’s Pick: Take the Aggies -1.5