Texas A&M vs. Florida: Week 3 Total Prediction

Texas A&M Aggies (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (1-1SU, 1-1 ATS)

NCAA College Football Week 3

Date/Time: Saturday September 14th, 2024. 3:30 PM (EST)

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Gainesville, FL.

TV: ABC

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: A&M -3.5/FLA +3.5 (Bet games at -105 instead of -110 at BAS Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: TAMU -190/Fla +160

Total: 49.5

After suffering a disappointing loss to Notre Dame in the opener, the Texas A&M Aggies had a week to regroup, which resulted in a 52-10 victory over the McNeese Cowboys from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). The Aggies offense was overpowering against an inferior McNeese defense and racked up more than 300 yards on the ground in the blowout victory. This week, the Aggies will get another true test when they go on the road to battle the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in what will be the first conference game for both schools.

Like the Aggies, the Gators have experienced a similar start to their 2024 campaign. Following a disappointing and rather sizable defeat to Miami in the opener, the Gators got a chance to bounce back with a 45-7 victory over Samford, who is also out of the FCS in a game that was a complete mismatch in talent. However, the victory over Samford was beneficial for freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. Lagway was able to throw for more than 450 yards against Samford in an impressive showing for QB Graham Mertz, who was held out due to a concussion. While Mertz is still listed as the starter, Head Coach Billy Napier has already been faced with a lot of questions regarding his quarterback situation heading into this weekend’s SEC opener against Texas A&M.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Florida Gators Betting Analysis

Head Coach Billy Napier stated on Tuesday that both quarterbacks DJ Lagway and Graham Mertz will play this weekend for the Gators. Lagway’s performance last week against Samford has forced a quarterback controversy in Gainesville and it appears that Florida will roll with the hot hand moving forward. Personally, I would not be surprised to see Florida go to Lagway quickly full-time if Mertz continues to struggle. The good news is that Florida has a clear backup plan if the Gators start slowly on Saturday despite the fact they will have a very tough match-up against a talented Texas A&M defense.

Meanwhile, we cannot say the same for Texas A&M. Let’s not forget this Aggies offense was exposed in the defeat to Notre Dame. QB Conner Weigman has a lot to prove, and the Aggies passing offense is anything but reliable at the moment. Matter of fact, I would argue that the Aggies’ offense is simply missing a big playmaker on the offensive side of the football. RB Le’Veon Moss appears to be the most reliable option in the ground attack. Then again, the Aggies simply need to keep the ball on the ground and avoid turnovers to play into the strength of their defense. Therefore, I would expect Texas A&M to focus heavily on the run game in this match-up against Florida!

Texas A&M vs. Florida Gators Betting Trends

• Texas A&M is 0-5 ATS in the last five games.
• Texas A&M is 0-10 SU in the last ten games on the road.
• Texas A&M has hit the “over” in 5 of the last seven games.
• Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in the last five games against SEC East opponents.
• Florida is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games.
• Florida has hit the “over” in 8 of the last ten games.
• Florida is 1-5 ATS in the last six games at home.
• Florida has hit the “over” in each of the last seven games against SEC opponents.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Florida Gators Prediction

I’m not confident either offense has any advantageous match-ups in this game. More importantly, I  have a lot of faith in the Aggies’ defense and believe they will make things very tough on Florida. I don’t have faith that the Aggies offense can be trusted, either. Simply put, I like this game to be a low-scoring affair. Trust the under!

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 49.5