Texas A&M Aggies vs. Georgia Bulldogs Pick 11/23/19

Texas A&M Aggies (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 – 3:30 PM ET
Where: Sanford Stadium – Athens, GA
TV: CBS

Point Spread: TAMU +13 / DAWGS -13 (Bovada)
Total: 47

Takeaways From Week Twelve

The Aggies come into this contest on a four-game winning streak capped off by an impressive 30-6 win over the only team to beat Georgia this season, the South Carolina Gamecocks. The Aggies were easy money when they closed as a 10.5-point home favorite and took it to their cross-divisional rivals.

The Bulldogs come into this game on the heels of what may be their most impressive win this season. UGA was small chalk on the road at Auburn last Saturday, priced as a field-goal favorite against the No. 12 Tigers. The Dawgs would jump out to a 21-0 lead but had to settle for a 21-14 nail-biting win that enabled the Bulldogs to earn their third consecutive cover. Like the Aggies, the Dawgs have won the last four outings.

How the Public is Betting The Georgia-Texas A&M Game

52% of the public are on-board with the Aggies with the points here as we have seen the line fall by half of a point since the Dawgs opened as a 13.5-point favorite at the open of this market.

The Historicals

Georgia and Texas A&M last met in 2009 in the Independence Bowl when the Aggies were still a member of the Big 12. This was the only meeting in recent history between both sides dating back to the Red and Black’s historic national championship run in 1980, where they crossed paths with the Aggies and emerged victoriously. In the bowl meeting between the 12th Man and the Bulldog Nation, the Dawgs defeated the Aggies 45-20 to cover easily as a 6.5-point favorite.

Injury Concerns

Neither the Aggies nor the Bulldogs have expressed any emergent injury concerns to key personnel heading into their conference clash.

Betting Trends

There is only one notable trend worth focusing on in the build-up to this affair, and that concerns Totals players. The Under is 5-0 ATS in the last five conference games the Bulldogs have participated in.

Why We Like The Dawgs To Cover

There is a lot of discussions that actually surround this Aggies team as they head into this tilt. Texas A&M has ranked once again and has been tapped on the shoulder as perhaps the best three-loss team in America with their defeats coming against the defending champions the Clemson Tigers, the Alabama Crimson Tide, and Auburn. The Aggies to some look like a solid play here with points as they have been “red hot” since their last loss suffered against Alabama in College Station on October 12th, where the Aggies were smothered 47-28 and could not cash in as a 17-point underdog. Contrarily, Georgia still remains a target of a lot of scrutinies. The Dawgs had pitched a shutout for seven consecutive quarters until Auburn generated two quick strikes in the fourth quarter of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. As a result of Georgia’s offense stalling and Auburn exploding back into the game, many will be reluctant to spot this number with the Red and Black. This is where an opportunity lies to back an undervalued Georgia.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Georgia -13

What more can I say about Georgia’s defense other than I perceive it as the best in America? The Dawgs are second overall in points against (10.5), they are sixth in total defense (267.5 yards against per match), and they are third in the FBS against the run (75.8 rushing yards against per game). Embellishing on their relentlessness against the run, the Dawgs have allowed just one rushing touchdown against them this year! That score came in the fourth quarter of their recent win, and previous to this, they had not allowed a rushing touchdown in nine straight games, which was considered an NCAA record. The Dawg defense has the ability to make opponents’ one-dimensional, and their fan base is known to intimidate visitors. The combination of these two elements will cause Texas A&M to be off their game. In addition, the Dawgs will also be extremely incentivized to bring their best in their follow-up to the Auburn win. After all, Georgia controls its own destiny in regards to the College Football Playoff as it has a date with LSU on December 7th in Atlanta, which will very well likely be a top-four match-up at minimum. All the Dawgs have to do between now and then is win; I expect them to do so decisively here and not take their foot off the gas by any stretch.