Tennessee vs. Ohio State Predictions: Expert College Football Playoff Picks

Tennessee Volunteers (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS)
College Football Playoff First Round Game
Date/Time: Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 8PM EST
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC/ESPN

The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus on December 21 in the first-round game of the College Football Playoff. Both teams are coming off 10-2 seasons, which, for the purposes of this newly expanded CFP format, was enough to get into the mix, with the 8-seed Buckeyes hosting the 9-seed Volunteers. The winner will face top-ranked Oregon at the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. Both teams enter this spot on about a three-week break, each last playing on November 30. The Volunteers were able to beat Vanderbilt, 36-23, in their last appearance, while Ohio State tasted defeat for the second time this season, seeing a five-game win streak end with a 16-13 loss to Michigan at this very stadium. Who do we get behind in this high-stakes matchup from Columbus?

Form Entering this Game

All in all, these teams had similar trajectories this season. Each team got off to a hot start, with some up-and-down moments as the season progressed, with their two losses happening at similar parts of the season. Each team also had enough eye-popping performances to warrant them each being X-factors in this format. Ohio State might have finished the season in bad fashion, losing at home to a not-so-great Wolverines squad. Their only other loss was a one-point loss to top-dog Oregon, with wins over Penn State and Indiana giving them wins over two teams in this playoff. Tennessee, meanwhile, may have been upset by Arkansas earlier in the year, and they couldn’t get it done against Georgia, but they were still able to beat Alabama and enter this on the heels of two straight wins with a little better momentum than their opponent this week.

What Ohio State Need to Do

The Michigan loss, their fourth in a row to their hated rival, was an untimely setback. The Buckeyes need to find a way to shake that off and do so fully, as they can’t afford to hit the field sagging against a Volunteers team that can wholly reproduce what the Wolverines did. It’s a Saturday night game at home. It’s going to be cold, but the Buckeyes are taking on a rising team with a good defense that will really be going for it. It’s a must that they hit the field ready to go and ready to go right away.

The Buckeyes are going to need to find answers in terms of stopping Tennessee back Dylan Sampson, who will be one of the best Ohio State has seen all season, even being in the Big Ten. Sampson opens things up for a young Tennessee quarterback in Nico Iamaleava, who seems to improve with each passing performance, as he enters this on the heels of two straight 4-touchdown games. He has a varied cast of pass-catchers with which to work. Ohio State really needs to see a defense that allowed more than 17 points just once this season to deliver in a big way.

What Tennessee Needs to Do

Offensively, a lot feeds off their bell-cow back Sampson, who has been really consistent this season. And when pitted against the better defenses in the SEC, he didn’t wane, showing what he does best can translate against good defenses. And while Iamaleava is pretty inexperienced when compared to other QBs in this CFP format, it’s helpful to the Volunteers’ cause that his best football came later, with just one pick in his last five games and better play overall. Let’s also be realistic. With Ohio State’s pass-rush and the quality they have in their secondary, Iamaleava is going to need all the game-maturity he has developed over the course of the season in this one.

Tennessee has seen their defense perform well this season, quickly assembling a gaggle of deep talent on this unit. They’re going to need to crank up that pass-rush and other disruptive aspects of their defense to challenge Ohio State QB Will Howard, their one-two punch at running back in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, along with receivers like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. This is some big-time offensive talent that surpasses the firepower of some of the offenses Tennessee saw to close out the season.

Major Questions

Is it possible we focus too heavily on Tennessee having to face the Ohio State defense? The reverse scenario might not shake out so well for Will Howard and this Ohio State offense, facing a unit that has consistently applied pressure on quarterbacks all season. Can Tennessee make this all work on the road? They did some good things this season on the road, but the bulk of their more impressive work came at home. Still, a lot of things they do well, like run the ball and play “D” can travel. And if they do, does it all add into a package that might be all wrong for Ohio State?

Take the Points

I don’t question whether the Buckeyes can shake off the bad end to the season. I think they should be ready to hit the field in this spot in close-to-peak form against a Tennessee team that will definitely be outside of its wheelhouse. I just think the combination of Tennessee’s strength at running back with Sampson, the growth of Iamaleava, and their attacking and stout defense converges to make them a tough opponent for Ohio State, where having a TD in slack on the point spread might come in handy. I’ll take the Volunteers in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Tennessee Volunteers plus 7 points.

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