Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction: Can the Volunteers Pull Off the Upset?

Tennessee Volunteers (8-1 SU, ATS 4-3)  vs Georgia Bulldogs (7-2 SU, ATS 2-6)
Date: 7:30 EST Saturday, November 16th
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
TV: ABC
Point Spread: UT +9.5/UGA -9.5
Money Line: UT +276/UGA  -355
Over/Under: 48.5

ABC will be handling the TV broadcast for this week 12 Southeastern matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and Georgia Bulldogs. Kick-off is set for 7:30 ET from Sanford Stadium in Athens. The Bulldogs are the -9.5-point favorites at home, with the over/under line currently at 48.5 points. Georgia comes in with a 7-2 record, while Tennessee has been strong at 8-1 this season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Tennessee Volunteers and Georgia Bulldogs did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Tennessee Volunteers have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, each team went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 1-2. These games averaged a combined 52 points per contest.

Tennessee Volunteers Recent Form:

Tennessee heads into Week 12 against Georgia with an 8-1 record, sitting 9th in our power rankings. They are 100% bowl-eligible and have a 12.6% chance of winning the Southeastern. The Volunteers have a 73.6% chance of making the playoff, which ranks 8th in the country.

Tennessee is 4-0 at home and 2-1 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in six of their nine games, going 5-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +25, and they have a 4-3 record against the spread.

The Volunteers’ over/under record is 3-4, with an average line of 56.9 points. This week’s line is 48.5 points, and their games have averaged 50.1 points per contest.

Heading into week 12, Tennessee’s offense ranks 15th in points per game, averaging 37.6. They are 45th in our offensive power rankings. The Volunteers have focused on their ground game, ranking 5th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards, with 237.9 yards per game.

Dylan Sampson leads the rushing attack with 1,129 yards and 20 touchdowns. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 1,879 yards, completing 65.2% of his passes, with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. His passer rating is 100.

Tennessee’s defense has been impressive this season, allowing just 12.6 points per game, ranking fifth nationally. They’ve been particularly strong against the run, giving up only 108.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 19th in the country. Opposing quarterbacks have managed a passer rating of just 68.6 against Tennessee, completing 56.7% of their passes for an average of 171.6 yards per game.

In their most recent game, Tennessee’s defense allowed just 14 points and 271 total yards against Mississippi State. They gave up 179 rushing yards on 38 attempts but held the Bulldogs to only 92 passing yards, forcing one interception.

Away Injury Report

Georgia Bulldogs Recent Form:

Georgia enters Week 12 against Tennessee with a 7-2 record, ranked 6th in our power rankings. They’re unbeaten at home (4-0) but have split their road games (2-2). The Bulldogs have a 7.7% chance of winning the Southeastern but are a lock for bowl eligibility. They have the 7th best odds of making the playoff at 73.9%.

Georgia’s ATS record stands at 2-6, with a 1-3 mark at home and on the road. They’ve been favored in seven games, going 1-6 against the spread as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +12.1 points per game this season.

The over/under line for this week is 48.5 points, compared to their season average of 51.7 points. Georgia’s over/under record is 3-5, with their games averaging 49 points per contest.

Georgia’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 22nd in passing attempts and 19th in completions, with an average of 286.4 yards per game. Carson Beck has thrown for 2,488 yards, completing 65.4% of his passes, and has 17 touchdowns but also 12 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 90.

Overall, Georgia is 39th in scoring, averaging 30.6 points per game, and they are 16th in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is 38.6%, and they rank 105th in rushing, averaging 125.3 yards per game. Trevor Etienne leads the ground game with 475 yards and seven touchdowns.

Georgia’s defense, ranked 14th nationally, is allowing 18.4 points per game this season. They’ve given up 114.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 30th, and 195.6 passing yards per game.

In their recent game against Ole Miss, Georgia allowed 28 points, giving up 396 total yards, including 263 passing yards. They also forced one interception during the game.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Tennessee has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1 while averaging 30 points per game.
• Through their last ten home games, Georgia has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 32 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Tennessee Volunteers have a straight-up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
• Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Georgia Bulldogs struggled vs the spread going just 0-5. However, they still had a straight up mark of 3-2.

Free Pick

Georgia is coming off a really tough loss last week, while the Volunteers took care of business vs Mississippi State. Tennessee has put together one of the best defenses in the nation and hasn’t given up more than 20 points all year. This should be a fun one to watch at Sanford Stadium, and I see this one coming down to the wire, which is why I’m taking Tennessee at +9.5.

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